AMD bought 12 gigawatts of OpenAI and Meta demand with 320 million penny shares
Lisa Su is in Taiwan and South Korea this week booking wafers, packaging and memory three to five years out, on demand she says already outruns supply. That demand was bought with warrants: up to 320 million AMD shares at one cent each for OpenAI and Meta, and the final $600 price gate has already been cleared.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Su books the factory three to five years out
The demand behind Lisa Su's supply-chain tour of Taiwan was not won on price alone: part of it was bought with 320 million AMD shares at one cent each 1. In Taipei on Tuesday she said AMD will "substantially increase" supply in 2027, because "the demand is even higher than our supply" 23.
Planning that once ran one to two years ahead now runs three to five, and AMD needs more advanced wafer capacity to keep up 2. A $10 billion-plus Taiwan investment remains on track 4.
MI450 chips entered production at TSMC on 2nm with CoWoS packaging in the third quarter, volume rising through 2027 4. Su heads next to South Korea, where Samsung is set to supply HBM4 memory for AMD's next-generation GPUs 24.
The equity bill for 12 gigawatts
In October 2025, AMD issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million shares at $0.01; Meta received a matching one in February 2026 15. Shares vest in tranches as each customer buys Instinct GPUs, the first at one gigawatt and the last only at six, with stock-price gates that climb to $600 15.
The stock first closed above $600 on September 21 and trades near $634, a $1.03 trillion company at about 161 times earnings 56. Nothing has vested: as of the June 27 filing, no warrant shares had been earned 15.
The first gigawatt is set to start shipping this half 15.
$3.2 million in, about $200 billion out
Fully exercised, the warrants add 320 million shares to a base of about 1.63 billion, a 19.6 percent expansion of today's count, for about $3.2 million of cash 1. At $600 to $630 a share, the paper is worth $192 billion to $202 billion 1. On the enlarged count, roughly one AMD share in six would sit behind a purchase order.
Su puts revenue per gigawatt in the "double-digit billions," which makes 12 gigawatts at least $120 billion of sales, against $16.6 billion of data center revenue in all of 2025 5. Group revenue hit $11.5 billion in the June quarter, up 50 percent 7.
AMD revenue has more than doubled in ten quarters
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | $5.5B |
| Q2 '24 | $5.8B |
| Q3 '24 | $6.8B |
| Q4 '24 | $7.7B |
| Q1 '25 | $7.4B |
| Q2 '25 | $7.7B |
| Q3 '25 | $9.2B |
| Q4 '25 | $10.3B |
| Q1 '26 | $10.3B |
| Q2 '26 | $11.5B |
If both penny warrants vest, OpenAI and Meta would hold about one AMD share in six
- Shares outstanding1,630M83.6%
- OpenAI warrant160M8.2%
- Meta warrant160M8.2%
Data
| Part | Millions of AMD shares | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Shares outstanding | 1,630M | 83.6% |
| OpenAI warrant | 160M | 8.2% |
| Meta warrant | 160M | 8.2% |
The bulls call the dilution a bargain
CFO Jean Hu called the OpenAI deal "highly accretive" to non-GAAP earnings per share 5. Stifel raised its target to $700 from $635, matching Rosenblatt and Cantor; analyst Ruben Roy sees ecosystem capacity and DRAM supply, not demand, as the brake 6.
But AMD retired just $221 million of stock in the first half, nowhere near enough to buy back the dilution 5, and investors already worry about overcapacity, rising debt and regulatory setbacks 3. If the gigawatts land, dilution is the price of growth; if they slip, capacity booked years out sits idle.
Vesting, not guidance, is the scoreboard
September-quarter results arrive with Stifel expecting a beat and a raise, carrying the first MI450 revenue 6. The more telling line sits in the next 10-Q: whether the first penny-share tranche has begun to vest 5.
Holders of a 161-times-earnings stock are underwriting both ends of the trade; OpenAI and Meta, with warrants running to 2030 and 2031, keep the option either way 56. The one-cent shares become real dilution the day the first gigawatt ships.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
