Anthropic can walk from $84.5 billion of SpaceX compute on 90 days' notice; the stock is at 103 times sales

SpaceX's▼−1.96% — SpaceX, down 1.96 percent today fastest-growing line of business is not rockets. The company that raised about $86 billion in June, the largest IPO on record, now rents Nvidia▼−1.30% — Nvidia, down 1.30 percent today-based computing capacity to AI labs, and its marquee customer is AnthropicPVT$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B, the maker of Claude ³. Confidential IPO paperwork↗ disclosed in late September shows Anthropic committed up to $84.5 billion for that compute through 2029, nearly double the roughly $45 billion implied by the May structure of $1.25 billion a month capped at three years↗ ¹². The headline hides the clause: those agreements are largely cancelable on 90 days' written notice ¹.

The stakes: a doubled bill, paid by a customer losing money

The payer is losing money while it commits. Anthropic reported about $4.6 billion of 2025 revenue against an $8.06 billion operating loss, held $20.28 billion of cash and short-term investments at year end, and has reportedly pushed its own IPO to November ². Revenue grew about twelvefold in 2025, but the loss widened along with it ³.

A $518 billion buildout, 80% of it pay-regardless

Its decade-long buildout with six partners totals at least $518 billion, and about 80% of it is non-cancelable or must be paid regardless of usage: $161.2 billion of Broadcom▼−4.25% — Broadcom, down 4.25 percent today equipment leases, $111.1 billion to Google, $110 billion to Amazon▼−1.94% — Amazon, down 1.94 percent today and $31.4 billion to Microsoft▼−2.20% — Microsoft, down 2.20 percent today ¹. The slice going to SpaceX, which absorbed Musk's xAIPVT$200B — xAI, private, latest valuation $200B earlier this year, is the only one of those disclosed commitments described in the filing as largely cancelable, on 90 days' notice ¹³.

That exit clause sits under the buildout. SpaceX spent $15.8 billion on AI capital spending in the second quarter alone, putting up data centers designed to run for years against revenue a customer can hand back in three months ³.

The bull exhibits: $54 billion a year needs the ramp

Needham, after meeting SpaceX's investor relations team, estimates the announced AI compute contracts could reach $54 billion in combined annualized revenue↗ as they ramp, supporting a goal of about $100 billion of total annual recurring revenue by end 2026; most deals ramp in the fourth quarter and one begins in December ⁴. The firm kept its Buy rating and $250 target, implying 66% upside, and across the street 37 analysts hold a Strong Buy consensus with an average target nearly 50% above the stock ⁴.

The proof point flew in the week to October 1: Starship Flight 14 reached orbit and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites before ending earlier than planned ⁴.

The prosecution: an 80% cut in the launch math

Short seller Jim Chanos, the Kynikos Associates founder known for calling Enron, counts the other side of Musk's promises. On the August 4 earnings call Musk said SpaceX would fly at least one Starship a day within a year; in an interview reported on October 1 he offered weekly or twice-weekly cadence next year ⁴. Aaron Burnett, founder and chief executive of space-focused investment and research firm Mach33, annualizes that target at 50 to 100 launches in 2027 ⁴.

At the midpoint, 75 launches against 365 at a sustained daily rate, Chanos calls it an 80% cut in the 2027 forecast ⁴. Consultant Tim Farrar goes further, arguing one or two a week looks like an end-2027 objective that will likely be further downgraded or pushed out; Starlink's V3 capacity plan rides on that cadence ⁴. The stock has noticed: it fell 12% in its debut quarter, is down 8% year to date, dropped 9% last week and retail sentiment turned bearish↗ ⁴⁶.

That is the multiple the contracts must fill: 103 times trailing sales↗, against Palantir▼−7.73% — Palantir, down 7.73 percent today at 87 and the S&P 500 at 3.5 ⁵.

The cross-examination: one dollar is not the other

The clause cuts both ways while Anthropic's demand for compute outruns supply, and walking away would hurt the customer more than the landlord ³. But the customer's own filing explains the split: pay-regardless, decade-long commitments went to the cloud giants, and the flexible one went to a newer landlord, the company Musk called "evil" on X in February↗ ¹³. A dollar of revenue that can vanish on 90 days' notice is not the same dollar as one locked for a decade, and a stock at 103 times sales needs the cancelable kind to behave like the locked kind.

Verdict watch: three dates

October 20 brings the postponed Memphis city council vote on a data center moratorium↗, after a packed meeting ended in shouting and a police call over the two data centers SpaceX, which acquired xAI earlier this year, operates there and the third it is building ⁷. November brings Anthropic's IPO, when the full prospectus and its termination terms become readable ². And the fourth quarter brings the ramp itself, with one deal starting in December ⁴. If the customer's paperwork lands before the revenue does, the 90-day clause is the number to read.