Apple's new CEO keeps Chinese DRAM on the table as CXMT posts a sevenfold quarter

A crisis, in the new chief's own words

John Ternus, Apple's▲+0.16% — Apple, up 0.16 percent today chief executive since September 1, used his first cover interview to keep Chinese memory on Apple's list of options ¹². Memory supply constraints are "clearly a serious crisis," he told TIME in an interview published October 15↗, and Apple's "basic stance is that we must review all options"; he named no supplier ¹. The Financial Times reported in July that Apple is trialing DRAM, the workhorse memory in phones and servers, from ChangXin Memory Technologies▲+3.28% — ChangXin Memory Technologies, up 3.28 percent today (CXMT), starting with devices sold in China. The Wall Street Journal reported in August that the tests span iPhones and MacBooks, with no final decision on adoption ¹. The market has already voted on the odds: on October 16, as the preliminary results circulated, CXMT's Shanghai-listed shares rose 3.28% while Micron▼−6.00% — Micron, down 6.00 percent today fell 5.63%, leaving Micron down more than 10% for the week ⁶⁹.

The memory bill pushed the door open

Tim Cook, Ternus's predecessor, called memory pricing a "100-year flood" on Apple's July 30 earnings call↗, and finance chief Kevan Parekh said memory caused more than 100% of Apple's gross-margin compression ³. Samsung and SK Hynix▼−6.61% — SK Hynix, down 6.61 percent today raised prices on the low-power DRAM they supply for iPhones by 80% and 100% in the first quarter of this year ¹. A report then said Apple cut October iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max orders↗ by about a seventh to a fifth of plan, after memory costs pushed those phones to $1,199 and $1,299 ⁴. Apple had walked away from CXMT talks earlier this year, finding no price advantage, and CXMT's cost per bit still runs about 30% above the incumbents ⁵. Washington pushes the other way: seven US senators, Chuck Schumer among them, have asked Apple to avoid CXMT, which sits on a Pentagon list of Chinese military-linked firms ¹.

CXMT swung from a loss to RMB 131 billion

The supplier under review just guided an eightfold nine months. Its Shanghai filing↗ puts January-to-September revenue at RMB 265–270 billion, up 726–742% on the year, and net income at RMB 131–132.5 billion ($19.6–19.8 billion), against a RMB 5.3 billion loss; chairman Zhu Yiming proposed a RMB 1–2 billion buyback ⁶⁷. The third quarter alone was guided at RMB 114.7–119.7 billion, up 15–20% on the quarter and 589–619% on the year, a sevenfold quarter ⁷⁸. Counterpoint Research counts CXMT at 10% of global DRAM revenue in the second quarter, up from 4% a year earlier, behind Samsung at 38%, SK Hynix at 25% and Micron at 24% ⁷⁸.

Who wins if Apple says yes

If Apple qualifies CXMT for China-market devices, CXMT gains a brand buyer at iPhone scale, and Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron lose the three-supplier market Cook complained about ³. Micron's revenue is cushioned: about $150 billion of take-or-pay contracts, paid whether or not customers take delivery, covering more than 35% of its revenue through 2030 ⁵. What breaks is the pricing power in the shares. That sets up a two-sided trade: CXMT, the breaker, whose market already rewards the news with a 3.28% gain against Micron's 5.63% fall, or patience until Apple answers. The one position this setup punishes is the incumbents' pricing power held into their earnings while the door stays open.

Overblown, say the analysts; the tests decide

Rosenblatt's Kevin Cassidy called the selloff "overblown" and kept a Buy rating on Micron↗ ⁹. Fundstrat's Kent Fung argues CXMT's 4F² design, a denser memory-cell layout, attacks conventional server DRAM rather than the high-bandwidth memory AI data centers buy ⁹. CXMT has also yet to prove it can build the new cells at commercial yields ⁵. Its president, Cao Kanyu, has promised server-grade DDR5 modules by the end of 2026 ⁹. No adoption decision exists ¹. The tell is whether CXMT DRAM appears in a China-market iPhone or Mac: that is the signal Apple will split its memory bill.