ASML missed by $50 million, raised its floor, and chip tools sold off anyway
ASML says customers are already queuing for 2030 order slots and its planned supply runs short of demand through 2028. TSMC's capex line on October 15 is the first number that says whether this week's tool selloff had any basis.
Vincent Jiang · 4 min read
The numbers did not argue for the selling
ASML's−0.18% — ASML, down 0.18 percent today third quarter was a beat dressed as a miss. Net sales of EUR 11.66 billion, up 55% from a year earlier, came to $13.07 billion against a $13.12 billion consensus, a shortfall of four tenths of one percent 28. Net profit of EUR 4.96 billion beat the EUR 4.1 billion expected 3, and earnings of $14.51 a share cleared a $12.05 estimate 2.
The guides went the other way. ASML lifted its 2026 sales floor to EUR 44 to 45 billion, from EUR 43 to 45 billion, and pointed the gross margin at about 56%, against a prior 54 to 56% 23. Fourth-quarter sales of EUR 14.2 to 15.2 billion would top the EUR 14.2 billion consensus at the high end 3.
The order book runs past the supply plan
Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said customers want order slots for 2029 and 2030, that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 runs short of demand, and that ASML is studying 2028 capacity beyond the 30% expansion in hand 23. In the quarter, Samsung and TSMC−1.74% — TSMC, down 1.74 percent today committed to High-NA EUV, the next generation of the lithography machines used to build the most advanced chips 3.
The selling started a day before the print
The equipment complex came into October 14 already selling 1. A day earlier, as Applied Materials−4.57% — Applied Materials, down 4.57 percent today opened its $5 billion EPIC research center in Sunnyvale, its stock fell 7%, the rival tool makers Lam Research−3.87% — Lam Research, down 3.87 percent today and KLA−2.59% — KLA, down 2.59 percent today dropped 4% each, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF slipped 1% 1.
Tool stocks slid on October 13, a day before ASML's results, with Applied Materials down 7%
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Applied Materials | -7% |
| Lam Research | -4% |
| KLA | -4% |
| iShares Semiconductor ETF | -1% |
Wednesday followed the script. ASML's US-listed shares fell about 3% in overnight trading, dragging the memory-chip makers Micron+1.10% — Micron, up 1.10 percent today and SanDisk and chipmaker Intel−3.77% — Intel, down 3.77 percent today down 1 to 2.6% 2, even as the Amsterdam line traded about 2% higher once Europe's cash market opened 3. ASML has now closed lower in six of its last seven sessions 2.
Visibility is not a signed contract
Applied Materials offered the other kind of number at the ribbon-cutting: none. The 600,000-square-foot EPIC lab puts researchers from the chipmakers Intel, TSMC, Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung alongside Applied's own engineers, with early access to its newest tools 4. Applied says that co-location can cut the road from concept to commercialization from 10 to 12 years to as few as six 4.
No spending forecast came with the building. Chief executive Gary Dickerson points to visibility into customer demand as far as 2030, on an August quarter of $9.12 billion, up 25% 4. Until companies collaborate in the lab, he said, "they don't know what they don't know" 4.
China is still 28% of Applied's revenue
The exposure beside the ribbon is Chinese. CXMT, a memory maker in China, claimed a density breakthrough that sent Samsung down about 7% and SK Hynix about 10% in Seoul 4, and China still accounts for 28% of Applied's revenue 1.
TSMC prints the tiebreaker
TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reports before the bell on Thursday, October 15 6, and capex is the line the tool makers answer to. Revenue of NT$1.49 trillion, up 50%, is already public and beat the company's own guidance 69. The NT$746.3 billion profit consensus, up 65%, implies a net margin near 50%, with the new 2nm node diluting gross margin by three to four points 5.
TSMC's guided 2026 capex of $60 to $64 billion sits half again above 2025
- Estimate
Data
| Value | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $30.33B | — |
| 2022 | $35.23B | — |
| 2023 | $30.89B | — |
| 2024 | $29.4B | — |
| 2025 | $40.67B | — |
| 2026 guide (estimate) | $60B | $60–64B |
The spend is the swing. TSMC laid out $40.7 billion in 2025 7 and has guided 2026 to $60 to 64 billion, a range it raised in July from $52 to 56 billion 5, inside the $265 billion committed in Arizona 9. Most of that money flows to equipment makers 5.
Watch the capex line, not the tape
If the range holds, this week's selling reads as profit-taking in stocks still far ahead: Applied up 80% this year and KLA 51% 1, ASML 61% 2. If it is trimmed, the bears finally have a hard number. TSMC reports in a day, and the capex line is the first figure big enough to settle the argument.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
