Beijing is not reopening Nvidia's China spigot, it is installing a meter

China's industry ministry is collecting order forms for Nvidia's newest workstation card from two named giants, volumes and use cases required, before it approves a thing. The chip sits outside the US control perimeter drawn in 2022, days after export controls went unmentioned at the Xi-Trump summit.

In this storyNVDABABAHuaweiAVGO
Vincent JiangVincent Jiang · 3 min read
Share
Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang speaking into a microphone at Computex Taipei in 2016
1 / 7Slide 1 of 7
Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang at Computex Taipei in 2016. His newest workstation card is the object of Beijing's order-form review.

The permit desk comes before the purchase

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has asked Alibaba and ByteDance to report how many RTX Pro 5500 cards they intend to buy and what they will use them for, and has told some companies Beijing intends to approve the purchases, according to a report citing two people familiar with the matter 1.

The card appeared only this month: a Blackwell workstation GPU with 84 GB of GDDR7 and 21,760 CUDA cores, the same core count as the GeForce RTX 5090, and no US price published 2. Chinese resellers quote 85,000 to 90,000 yuan, about $13,000, next to Huawei's Ascend 950PR 3.

A million units, half a million a quarter

ByteDance has weighed an order of about one million units, and Nvidia aims to ship from late December at roughly 500,000 units a quarter for China, with sales staff pressing buyers to commit by 30 September 3. The floor is moving: TrendForce puts foreign suppliers at 21 percent of China's AI-server chip market this year, down from 34 percent in 2025, with Huawei- and Cambricon-led domestic suppliers near 80 percent 4.

Foreign suppliers' share of China's AI-server chips slides toward a fifth of the market

  • Foreign suppliers (Nvidia and peers)
  • Domestic suppliers (Huawei, Cambricon)
  • Estimate
0%20%40%60%80%20252026 (projected)34%
Data
Foreign suppliers (Nvidia and peers)Domestic suppliers (Huawei, Cambricon)
202534%66%
2026 (projected) (estimate)21%79%
Share of China's AI-server chip market, percent. The 2026 figures are TrendForce projections reported in September 2026; the domestic share is the residual of the foreign share. Sources: TrendForce via The Korea Times [4].4

The card threads the fence drawn in 2022

The 5500 is a workstation card, which places it outside the data-center accelerator category US export controls have targeted since October 2022 5. Buyers plan to bolt eight of them into each server anyway 3.

That configuration is the risk Washington carries: at half a million units a quarter, the workstation lane becomes an artery for American silicon around a perimeter the US itself drew in 2022 3.

The calendar explains the hurry: US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said national-security controls were taken "off the table" in this week's trade talks 4, and the summit's official deliverables ran to pandas, coal and a "super intelligence" dialogue, with no word on chip controls 6.

The state estate moves the other way

SASAC, the state-asset regulator, has spent weeks surveying Broadcom switches across state data centers and found them in as much as 90 percent of the equipment; Nvidia products are already barred from state-backed facilities 7.

The H200 lane shows what approval looks like: quantities capped, sales under 1 percent of China data-center revenue in the quarter ended 26 July, a $400 million inventory charge, and current guidance that excludes China data-center revenue entirely 34.

Nvidia's revenue has quintupled in three years, even as China data-center sales were capped and written off

$0B$20B$40B$60B$80B$100BQ4 '23Q2 '24Q4 '24Q2 '25Q4 '25Q2 '26$96.22B
Data
Nvidia revenue
Q3 '23$18.12B
Q4 '23$22.1B
Q1 '24$26.04B
Q2 '24$30.04B
Q3 '24$35.08B
Q4 '24$39.33B
Q1 '25$44.06B
Q2 '25$46.74B
Q3 '25$57.01B
Q4 '25$68.13B
Q1 '26$81.62B
Q2 '26$96.22B
Nvidia quarterly revenue in billions of US dollars, by calendar quarter of period end. The H200 inventory charge and the exclusion of China data-center revenue from guidance sit inside this run. Source: Sharadar quarterly fundamentals, from Nvidia's SEC filings, retrieved 28 September 2026 [9].9

Nvidia says US firms "continue to be restricted by a combination of outdated US export controls" and "China's own limits on US imports" 1.

Not a reopening, a ration book

Nothing is approved yet: the report is single-sourced, no caps or allocations are public, and Beijing paused these same firms' Nvidia orders during an earlier security review 13.

The inquiries go to selected firms, not a nationwide clearance, and buyers must explain their demand before permission to import 3. Every other Chinese AI firm now bids for compute under a rationing regime.

The test comes in sequence: US-China deal specifics are flagged for Monday 8, and Nvidia's 30 September order deadline follows on Wednesday 3. The state that audits Broadcom out of its data centers is picking who may buy Nvidia. This is not a reopened spigot; it is a ration book, and Beijing holds the pen.

How this brief was made

01Gathered & sourced415 channels · 1,441 articles▾

Agents swept 415 channels and ingested 1,441 articles, then de-duplicated and ranked them for signal.

02Verified & cross-validated9 claims · 14 data feeds▾
03Reviewed & edited1 human editor▾

One editor read the draft against the evidence, tuned the framing, and signed off before it shipped.

Become a contributor

Reporting on the business of AI and want it read? We take pitches from outside contributors who bring primary sources and a number worth arguing about.

Share

Deepdive

AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.

Reader comments

0 comments

    Sign up

    Get your curated digest

    After email confirmation, you will receive a daily digest of the most relevant news that matter to your portfolio