Bloom Energy's 63.5x premium rides on Oracle's 2.45-gigawatt campus and a December 7 air-permit hearing
Oracle reaffirmed Bloom fuel cells as Project Jupiter's primary power this week and added no revenue. The campus stands nearly finished without electricity, short an air permit and a gas pipeline, and the hearing that can change that starts December 7, five weeks after Thursday's earnings print.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
Oracle−0.69% — Oracle, down 0.69 percent today settled demand this week and left delivery waiting on a permit. The database and cloud company reaffirmed that Bloom Energy's+8.01% — Bloom Energy, up 8.01 percent today fuel cells stay the primary power source for Project Jupiter, its AI campus at Santa Teresa, New Mexico, slated for up to 2.45 gigawatts 12, and posted that construction is "moving quickly" 3.
None of it reaches the fuel-cell maker's order book. The reaffirmation carries no contract value 1, and the backup agreement Oracle proposed with the local utility, El Paso Electric, pays the utility for commissioning and emergencies, which makes it Oracle's money, not Bloom's 24.
The buildings are nearly finished and have no electricity
Bloom's cells make electricity from natural gas on site, which is why Oracle replaced the gas turbines it originally planned with them 2. The campus is approaching completion with no power, and the plot where the fuel cells would sit is empty: construction there has not started, and a truck of sample tanks stood in for the 7,000 cells an Oracle executive says the site needs 5.
Between the buildings and the electrons sit a state air permit and a gas pipeline. The permit hearing, once set for September, now starts December 7, and the hearing officer has said it could slip again 5. A motion to dismiss the application, filed after state modeling showed projected pollutant concentrations doubling, is heard on October 26 56. The pipeline's start date has already slipped to February 2027 7.
Thursday's numbers cannot settle what the multiple prices
Bloom reports after the close on October 22 18. Wall Street models $1.07 billion of revenue on estimates that have sat unchanged for two months, and Zacks' own model predicts no beat, even after four straight ones 8. That figure is essentially level with what Bloom reported for its spring quarter 9. Thursday can confirm a ramp that has already happened. It cannot permit a fuel cell.
Bloom's ramp is already reported; the Street's Q3 estimate asks it to hold that level
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $0.33B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.57B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.33B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.4B |
| Q3 '25 | $0.52B |
| Q4 '25 | $0.78B |
| Q1 '26 | $0.75B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.07B |
| Q3 '26E (estimate) | $1.07B |
The calendar risk sits with Bloom's holders
The available coverage reads this the other way around: bullish on Bloom as the stronger infrastructure buy, bearish on Oracle as the exposed party, with Baird lifting its target again 1031. The permit record runs opposite for the next two months.
Oracle has issued a force majeure notice shielding it from power-supply delays, lined up utility backup, and can truck gas at roughly four times pipeline cost while it waits; its problem is cost 27. Bloom's problem is conversion. At 63.5 times forward earnings, far above its power-equipment peers, the stock pays out only if fuel cells get permitted and energized 1.
Bloom's forward earnings multiple towers over its power-equipment peers
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Bloom Energy | 63.5 |
| GE Vernova | 43.2 |
| Cummins | 15.9 |
The bottleneck is a hearing calendar
The fuel cells work and the demand is real. The unfinished hop between them is regulatory, a state air permit and a federal pipeline review, and the premium belongs to whoever moves that paperwork forward 57. Both dated steps, the dismissal motion and the permit hearing, fall after the earnings call meant to reassure holders. Thursday will show what Bloom has already shipped; the multiple gets decided five weeks later.
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