BMW counted Figure robots one at a time. The valuation is priced on 100,000
Figure is back in market for $1.5 billion near a $39.5 billion mark, with Nvidia reportedly weighing another $1 billion. The customer counts beneath that mark, on BMW's own statements, top out at three robots.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
New money at a year-old mark
Figure is in talks to raise $1.5 billion at a valuation near $39.5 billion, Reuters reported on October 8 1, days after The Information reported that Nvidia−1.12% — Nvidia, down 1.12 percent today has discussed another $1 billion at about $38 billion before new money 2. Neither is a closed round.
The mark being tested is the one set in September 2025, when the Series C closed at $39 billion, up from $2.6 billion nineteen months earlier 3. Figure has raised about $1.9 billion in its life 4 and never disclosed material revenue; third-party analysts estimate the low tens of millions 5.
A 15-fold mark-up in 19 months, and the new round barely moves the mark
- Valuation
- Estimate
Data
| Valuation | |
|---|---|
| Series B, February 2024 | $2.6B |
| Series C post, September 2025 | $39B |
| Talks reported, October 2026 (estimate) | $39.5B |
What BMW actually counted
The deployment story under that mark is BMW's Spartanburg plant, and BMW's account keeps narrowing. The 2025 pilot ran one robot at a time, a second rotating in while the first charged, though it moved some 90,000 parts and helped build roughly 30,000 X3 SUVs 3. Adcock told Forbes he thinks "six or eight" robots are onsite and is "pretty sure" BMW is paying, points he wanted to check with his press team 3.
The June return, on BMW's account, was a non-production test involving two or three robots, and it has ended: no Figure robots work at the plant, and of the four robots in the promotional video, one did the job 3. BMW will not say whether money changed hands 3.
BMW's robot counts sit beside the 100,000-robot path that set the price
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| BMW 2025 pilot: robots working at once | 1 |
| BMW June 2026 test: robots involved | 3 |
| Align SPV memo: four-year robot path (estimate) | 100,000 |
The memo that set the price
Last year's round reserved as much as $1.2 billion for Parkway and Align, two small firms that filled their allocations with special-purpose vehicles, some taking checks from $100,000 3. An Align memo told those buyers a path to 100,000 robots over four years would be "$9b in ARR under current pricing assumptions", annual recurring revenue 3.
The second named customer, reported to be UPS, declined to comment; the Teamsters union says UPS never notified it of Figure testing, which it says is required 3. OpenAI$1.18T — OpenAI, private, latest valuation $1.18T walked after what it calls Figure's "consistent failure to meet the deliverables required" 3. Adcock threatened defamation claims over similar reporting in April 2025 and never said publicly what was false 6.
The robots are still real
The other side deserves its count. BMW confirms the pilot moved some 90,000 parts and helped build tens of thousands of vehicles, work Forbes calls a meaningful accomplishment 3. A June BMW Group announcement said Figure 03 robots had commenced logistics operations at Spartanburg, plant vice president Ulrich Wieland on record 7.
BotQ, Figure's robot factory, reports more than 350 third-generation robots delivered against a 12,000-unit annual target, company-claimed, with no commercial-sales breakdown 89. Nscale, a data-center operator, has committed $3.5 billion of compute, scalable past $6 billion, on up to 100,000 Nvidia GPUs at its Barstow, Texas site from late 2027 29.
Nvidia holds both ends of the trade, reported investor and chip supplier 4. The closest public benchmark, Unitree, set a $6.2 billion base valuation for its Shanghai listing on $253 million of 2025 revenue and an adjusted profit 5.
What settles it
Three readings decide the mark: whether this round closes near it, whether any customer confirms paying for a fleet, and whether the Barstow buildout lands on schedule in late 2027 2. One wealth estimate puts Adcock's fortune at $23.4 billion, mostly on the current mark 3.
On the record so far, the two counts do not meet. BMW's numbers count robots that worked at Spartanburg, one at a time in the pilot and at most three in the June test; the 100,000-robot figure is a projection in a sales memo, and the valuation rests on the projection.
More about NVIDIA
NVDA · Fiscal Q2 2027Revenue rose 106% to $96.2B, 92.5% of it from Data Center, “driven by the ramp of our Blackwell Ultra infrastructure”. Gains on equity stakes of $7.8B lifted net income to $59.7B.
Show as a table
| Line | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $96.2B |
| Gross margin | 75.0% |
| Operating margin | 66.2% |
| Net income | $59.7B |
| Hyperscale | $48.7B |
| AI clouds & enterprise | $40.3B |
| Data Center | $89.0B |
| Edge Computing | $7.2B |
| Gross profit | $72.1B |
| Cost of revenue | $24.1B |
| Other income | $7.8B |
| Operating income | $63.7B |
| Operating expenses | $8.4B |
| Tax | $11.8B |
| R&D | $7.1B |
| SG&A | $1.4B |
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
