Copper near records, Grasberg mills at 67% of pre-accident rates: Freeport-McMoRan reports October 27

A mud rush, then a year of digging out

A year after a deadly mud rush at Grasberg, its copper-and-gold complex in Papua, Indonesia, Freeport-McMoRan↗ is still digging out. The September 2025 accident forced force majeure, the contract clause that excuses missed deliveries↗, and cut 2026 copper sales guidance to 3.1 billion pounds, from 3.4 billion ²³.

Freeport, Phoenix-based and an S&P 500 member, reports third-quarter results before the open on October 27 and pays its 7.5-cent quarterly dividend November 2 ¹. Last quarter Grasberg's mills averaged 140,000 tonnes of ore a day, 67 percent of pre-accident rates↗, half of it from the Block▼−1.64% — Block, down 1.64 percent today Cave, the underground mine now in phased recovery ⁴.

The banks are buying 2027 tonnes

On October 5 Citi lifted its target to $84 from $66 and kept Buy, citing Grasberg progress and the copper outlook ¹. Two days later JPMorgan went to $92 from $77↗, at Overweight, a buy rating ⁵. The stock ended October 13 worth $103.2 billion↗, 35.18 times earnings against 18.62 for Teck Resources, a Canadian mining peer ⁶, then slid to $68.97 on October 14 ⁷.

That is the trade the banks underwrite: investors are paying today's price for tonnes that reach the surface in 2027.

Price did volume's job in the June quarter

The second quarter, reported July 23, showed the shape ¹. Realized copper averaged $6.17 a pound, up 35.9 percent year over year, while copper sales fell 30.1 percent to 710 million pounds ⁶. Revenue slipped 7.3 percent to $7.03 billion; net income rose 27.5 percent to $984 million ⁶.

October repeats the shape, company-wide. Freeport produced 830 million pounds of copper but expects to sell 750 million ⁴. Gold sales came in 60,000 ounces light after deferrals into the fourth quarter, and unit costs are running 5 percent above the $2.00-a-pound July estimate against a realized price above $6.50 ⁴.

What the October 27 report has to settle

The report has to show copper near record highs covering both the cost creep and the 80-million-pound company-wide gap between what Freeport produced and what it expects to ship.

The bull case is timing: the deferred gold returns in the fourth quarter, and the mills are guided to 80 percent of capacity by mid-2027 and full capacity by end-2027 ⁴. Second-half sales were already guided more than 20 percent above the first half ³.

The bear case is that copper's run is a policy trade. Comex, the New York futures exchange, settled at a record $6.89 a pound on September 9↗, then slid on October 14 as United States inflation data revived rate-hike odds and Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, neared a labor deal ⁸. Macquarie counts surpluses above 700,000 tonnes a year from 2027 as Grasberg and other mines ramp ⁸.

Official data put the copper market near balance↗, exchange stocks at their highest since 2003, and Washington still deciding whether to tax refined copper imports from January 1 ⁹. Holders are long two clocks: the Grasberg ramp that completes at end-2027, and the tariff call on January 1.