CXMT Starts Mass-Producing Cheaper DRAM as Rivals Bet the Shortage Lasts to 2030
Days after data showed CXMT at 9.5% of global DRAM revenue with the industry's best operating margin, the Chinese maker put a fifth-generation platform into volume production. Micron's 30 September report is the shortage story's first test.
Vincent Jiangthree-minute read
DRAM's new fourth player ships its fifth generation
At the World Manufacturing Convention in Hefei on Sunday, 20 September, CXMT said its fifth-generation DRAM platform, G5, has entered mass production, alongside two 24-gigabit LPDDR5X chips built on it 12. CXMT is China's largest memory maker and now the world's fourth-largest DRAM maker by revenue 13. The named buyers are phone brands: Nubia, Xiaomi−3.74% — Xiaomi, down 3.74 percent today and Transsion 1.
The process shrinks the tightest feature in the memory cell to 11.95 nanometres using quadruple patterning, which the company says brings it close to the 10-nanometre-class platforms Samsung and SK Hynix already run in volume, with at least 50% more dies per wafer and a lower cost per chip 12.
Scarcity to 2030 is the priced case
The bull case rests on two assumptions already in the prices. SK Hynix, holder of roughly half the high-bandwidth-memory market, sees no supply-demand balance before 2030, and its board has approved $38.30 billion of fab investment through 2031 56. Nvidia's−3.21% — Nvidia, down 3.21 percent today finance chief calls memory pricing "extreme" and "headed even higher into next year," and has guided gross margin down to a 71–72% floor while the bill lands 7.
Micron−4.50% — Micron, down 4.50 percent today cleared a $1 trillion valuation this year at 6.6 times forward earnings, and Morgan Stanley+0.55% — Morgan Stanley, up 0.55 percent today more than doubled its target to $1,050 5. The complex rallied into the news: Friday's close put Micron up 3.9% and SanDisk up 11% 3.
CXMT grew almost twice as fast as the market
The margin transfer The Inference traced in "Memory Is Eating the AI Boom" now has a challenger with production dates. CXMT's share of global DRAM revenue reached 9.5% in the second quarter, up from 7.6%, on revenue up 99.3% sequentially, in a market that itself grew 59.5% to $154.7 billion 34.
The growth is no longer only cheap phone chips. CXMT's server DRAM revenue passed its mobile revenue for the first time, and its 82% operating margin topped Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron 48.
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Samsung | 39.4% |
| SK Hynix | 24.9% |
| Micron | 23.3% |
| CXMT | 9.5% |
Phones, not HBM, for now
The bulls have a fair answer: CXMT's new parts are LPDDR5X for handsets, not the HBM that carries the AI premium, and Samsung's and SK Hynix's inventories sit below 10 days 24. Citi still cut its Micron target to $1,150 on possible 2027 price softening 5.
30 September is the first reading
Micron reports fiscal Q4 on 30 September with high-bandwidth memory sold out for 2026 5. Watch two lines: whether CXMT's server share keeps climbing, and whether contract prices keep rising, since TrendForce already sees third-quarter increases slowing to 13–18% 4.
The paying side has names: Nvidia's guided margin floor is the AI builders absorbing the bill and passing part of it forward, and TrendForce reports PC and smartphone makers already struggle to absorb further increases 74. Whoever signs long contracts at today's prices carries the risk if CXMT's cheaper capacity turns the cycle. Every point of share CXMT takes is a point the shortage story has to buy back.
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