Micron's Taiwan fab stays suspended after a union walkout, handing HBM capacity to Samsung and SK hynix

Taoyuan stops, with no date to restart

Micron's▼−4.50% — Micron, down 4.50 percent today Taiwan plant union has withdrawn from profit-sharing negotiations, leaving the Fab 11E memory plant in Taoyuan suspended with no settlement date ¹². Micron broke ground on the $3 billion to $4.5 billion plant in July for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM due in 2028; only site-safety work continues ¹².

What the walkout leaves on the table

The union wants a permanent formula that hands workers 15% of operating profit, paid quarterly↗ ⁷. Against the margin Micron is guiding to, that is a large claim: the company earned $99.3 billion of operating income in fiscal 2026, so a 15% formula on last year's numbers would have paid employees about $15 billion a year ⁵⁶.

Samsung settled its own strike threat at 10.5% of chip-division operating profit↗ and SK hynix▼−5.27% — SK hynix, down 5.27 percent today at 10%, which gives the Taoyuan union a benchmark well below its ask, and gives Micron a settlement range short of 15% ⁵⁶. Neither side has moved, and the sources do not say when talks might resume.

The orders do not wait for Taoyuan

Micron has buyers who have already committed. Management said on September 30 that more than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are spoken for↗, and most of the new capacity it funds opens in late 2028 or later ⁴. It guided the December quarter to $61.5 billion of revenue at about 86% gross margin ⁴.

A frozen fab is supply that cannot answer those commitments. SK hynix and Samsung can fill the orders Micron cannot: SK hynix said on its third-quarter earnings call↗ that its DRAM and HBM capacity through 2029 is effectively sold out under long-term customer agreements, and Samsung says its 2027 HBM output is fully booked ³.

The smallest slice of Nvidia's HBM4

Micron was already the smallest of Nvidia's▼−3.21% — Nvidia, down 3.21 percent today three HBM4 suppliers this year, with an estimated 17% share against SK hynix's 55% and Samsung's 28% ³. While Taoyuan stands still, that share has no reason to grow: Micron would collect boom pricing on the shipments it has committed, and SK hynix and Samsung would supply the volume it cannot. Micron's own annual report warns that a labor disruption could divert customer demand to competing suppliers ⁸.

December's guide is the test

Micron trades at about 4 times forward earnings, down more than 40% from its June high, because the market treats this profit as peak-cycle money ⁴. The December guide shows whether the price floor holds; the Taoyuan timeline shows whether Micron adds any supply of its own before the shortage ends ⁴. If the fab slips past 2028, the committed volume goes to rivals with booked capacity and no profit-sharing standoff ⁴.