Duolingo's CEO sold his last direct shares as Evercore doubled its target
A Form 4 filed 28 September shows Luis von Ahn exercised options at $38.08 and sold all 46,682 shares the same day for about $7.0 million, zeroing his direct Class A stake. It was his ninth sale in six months at a company whose insiders have sold 29 times without buying once.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
In at $38.08, out at $150, all in one day
On 24 September, Luis von Ahn ran the whole trade before the close. Duolingo's co-founder and CEO exercised a vested option on 46,682 shares at $38.08, converted them into Class A stock and sold every one at $150.45–$152.29: about $7.03 million, nearly four times the strike 12.
The Form 4, filed 28 September, leaves his direct Class A line at zero and 3,368,120 Class B shares in place, each convertible one-for-one 1. The sale ran under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 2 June, two months before the August guide and three before the upgrade wave 1.
Twenty-nine trades in six months, zero buys
The sale was von Ahn's ninth in six months, taking his tally to 115,954 shares and about $17.5 million 3. Across the company, insiders logged 29 open-market trades in that window and not one purchase 3. Four more executives, including General Counsel Stephen Chen, added roughly $4.6 million 3. Over 12 months the ledger reads $37.8 million sold against $0.5 million bought 4, and Quiver notes a filing that lets the CEO's plan keep selling through September 2027 3.
Six months of insider trades at Duolingo: 29 sales, zero buys
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Luis von Ahn (CEO) (estimate) | $17.5M |
| Stephen Chen (GC) (estimate) | $1.7M |
| William Gordon (estimate) | $1.5M |
| Natalie Glance (estimate) | $1.2M |
| Robert Meese (estimate) | $0.3M |
Users up 23 percent, revenue guided up 11
Duolingo's own August letter carries the tension. Q2 daily active users hit 58.7 million, up 23 percent, while revenue grew 18 percent to $298.5 million 7. The Q3 guide is $302 million of revenue, up 11.1 percent, and $307 million of bookings, up 8.9 percent, with DAU growth above 20 percent all year 7.
DA Davidson's 170,000-user panel reads Q3 DAU growth at 25.6–27.6 percent, and the firm says its data has historically run 100 to 200 basis points under reported results 6. Set that panel against the guide and, on that arithmetic, revenue per daily user falls roughly 12 percent this quarter; at the company's own 20 percent floor, about 7 67.
Revenue growth has fallen from 45 to a guided 11 percent
- Revenue growth, YoY
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue growth, YoY | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '23 | 45.4% |
| Q1 '24 | 44.9% |
| Q2 '24 | 40.6% |
| Q3 '24 | 39.9% |
| Q4 '24 | 38.8% |
| Q1 '25 | 37.7% |
| Q2 '25 | 41.5% |
| Q3 '25 | 41.1% |
| Q4 '25 | 35% |
| Q1 '26 | 26.5% |
| Q2 '26 | 18.3% |
| Q3 '26 (estimate) | 11.1% |
The buyers' case, and its ceiling
Evercore ISI upgraded to Outperform on 1 September, doubled its target to $210 from $105, cast the setup as Netflix after its 2022 reset, and put 2027–28 earnings 10 to 25 percent above consensus; the stock rose more than 5 percent that day against a market selloff 569. DA Davidson followed at $175, from $160 56. The rest of the street is cooler: 17 of 25 analysts sit at Hold, and the median of six recent targets is $96 36.
Evercore's doubled target sits 47 percent above the share price
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Evercore ISI (estimate) | $210 |
| DA Davidson (estimate) | $175 |
| Close, 29 Sep | $142.62 |
| Street median (estimate) | $96 |
Duolingo itself has bought back $71.9 million of stock through 1 August, nearly all of its 2024 and 2025 dilution 7. The plan's timing cuts both ways: signed in June, it predates the guide and the rally, so this reads as scheduled selling rather than a verdict on the AI thesis.
What the Q3 print must reconcile
Shares closed 28 September at $134.30, down 6.4 percent on the day and 58.9 percent over the year, then bounced 6.1 percent to about $142.62, still below every price the CEO received 45. The Q3 report referees the dispute: user growth near 26 percent against 11 percent guided revenue growth is a price-per-user story, not an AI-monetization one. Evercore doubled its target; the founder emptied his direct stake.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
