Europe Is Firing Palantir Over a Book Worth Ten Weeks of Revenue
An 18-country investigation prices Palantir's continental book at $296 million, and six governments are timing their exits. Against $8.15 billion of guided 2026 revenue and a NATO and Pentagon book that deepened again this month, Europe is a rounding error with a deadline.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Karp's one-word verdict now has a price tag
"The growth sucks." That was Palantir−8.14% — Palantir, down 8.14 percent today chief executive Alex Karp on August 3, describing Europe to shareholders while colleagues defended an "incredible" US quarter 1. On October 16 the first document-based count of that book landed: journalists in 18 countries, led by the Dutch outlet Follow the Money, tallied dozens of public records into the widest map yet of Palantir's contracts across the continent 1.
Six governments have dated their exits
Spain's only contract, €16.5 million to run the armed forces' intelligence databases, expires at year-end and will not be renewed, with a Spanish firm building the replacement if the government survives its November 29 election 1. France's domestic intelligence agency, Norway's police, the Netherlands and Denmark have each moved toward European substitutes 1. The UK's new prime minister, Andy Burnham, wants Palantir out of the NHS and the Ministry of Defence 1; 16 NHS trusts and boards have told freedom-of-information requests they do not use the £330 million patient-data platform, whose break clause falls in February 2027 23.
The whole book is worth ten weeks
Everything Palantir has signed in Europe since 2012, about $1.6 billion including the UK, adds up to roughly ten weeks of its own guided 2026 revenue 14.
Palantir's entire European book vs one year of guided revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Value | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| UK, contracts since 2012 | $1.3B | — |
| Continental Europe, 11 countries | $0.3B | — |
| 2026 revenue guidance (estimate) | $8.16B | $8.15–8.16B |
The engine that makes Europe optional
Quarterly revenue has nearly tripled in two years, to $1.94 billion, and full-year guidance has been raised twice, to $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion 45.
Quarterly revenue nearly tripled in two years, to $1.94 billion
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $0.56B |
| Q4 '23 | $0.61B |
| Q1 '24 | $0.63B |
| Q2 '24 | $0.68B |
| Q3 '24 | $0.73B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.83B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.88B |
| Q2 '25 | $1B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.18B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.41B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.63B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.94B |
International sales, about $362 million last quarter, grew 34%, the slowest piece of the business 6. The deepening runs the other way: NATO has used Palantir's Maven Smart System as its central command software since March 2025 1, the US Army just awarded Anduril up to $1.8 billion to scale a command network prototyped with Palantir 7, and Goldman Sachs−1.27% — Goldman Sachs, down 1.27 percent today upgraded the stock to Buy on October 8 on sovereign-AI demand 8.
Palantir's answer: 137 trusts and a green rating
The company calls the NHS platform one of just 20% of major government programs with a green delivery rating, and NHS England says 137 trusts report benefits, from 117,000 additional operations to a 14.3% drop in discharge delays, while conceding the figures cannot prove cause and effect 2. Its UK chief puts it more plainly: "If NATO went to war, it would go to war using Palantir" 3.
November settles the argument
The Q3 report lands on November 2 9, Spain votes on the 29th 1, and the UK's break-clause call is due this autumn 3. Karp has asked to be judged on growing the whole company at his US commercial rate, 134%, for 18 months 6. Six governments have decided they can live without Palantir. The question on November 2 is whether Palantir notices.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
