The Defense Department paid Palantir $2.05 billion in a year. The short case runs through the commercial line
A single $637.5 million task order anchors the flow, the stock closed at a record $209.05 on October 9, and the third-quarter report lands on November 2. The bear case has to run through the commercial line the AI labs now contest.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The Army's payment lands first
The Department of the Army paid Palantir−0.36% — Palantir, down 0.36 percent today USG $92 million on June 30, 2026, and the entry surfaced in the federal spending record on October 5 1. It is one line among many. The same ledger shows $2,052,446,457 of award payments to Palantir's US government subsidiary over the past twelve months 1.
$2.05 billion in, a record close out
That flow underwrites a stock that closed at a record $209.05 on October 9, up 5.17%, the day Barclays initiated coverage at Overweight with a $265 target 2. The company confirmed the third-quarter report for Monday, November 2, after the close 3. Shares have returned 46% over the past three months 4.
74 times sales is a bet on the other half
Buyers pay about $74 for each trailing sales dollar against about $3 for the S&P 500 4. The premium rests on the commercial side: companies supplied 46% of fiscal 2025 revenue, and management said on the August call that the AI labs, whose models Palantir also resells, now want the same customers 4. Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy with a $230 target on October 8, citing sovereign AI and bespoke applications 5.
One task order pays $637.5 million
One task order pays Palantir $637.5M of the year's $2.05B
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| CDAO MSS task order | $637.6M |
| FORSCOM Task Order 1 | $104.8M |
| Data Platform (HAF) | $86.6M |
| DSS IDIQ (HAF) | $76.5M |
The ledger's largest-paying award is a task order under the Department of Defense's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO), labeled MSS in the spending record: it has paid Palantir $637,552,404 in a year, about 31% of the ledger 1. In a $192 million production order dated August 31, the Army's intelligence and spectrum capability office bought eight systems over eighteen months for the Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node (TITAN): $127 million to Palantir, which leads overall TITAN production, and $65 million to rival defense-technology firm Anduril$116.89B — Anduril, private, latest valuation $116.89B 6. A $48.09 million fixed-price order on September 17 retires nine legacy ammunition platforms 7.
Revenue tripled in ten quarters; the Q3 guide asks for $2.16B
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | $0.63B |
| Q2 '24 | $0.68B |
| Q3 '24 | $0.73B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.83B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.88B |
| Q2 '25 | $1B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.18B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.41B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.63B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.94B |
| Q3 '26 guide (estimate) | $2.16B |
Zero buys, 44,000 objections
Insiders sold on the open market 91 times in six months and bought nothing; chief executive Alexander Karp alone sold about $140.2 million 1. More than 44,000 people in Britain have filed legal objections to the NHS data platform built on Palantir technology 7. The stock now trades near 110 times forward earnings, and shares fell the session after two of the last five earnings beats 2. The defense money is verifiable. The multiple rests on the commercial line.
November 2 decides the commercial line
The company guided third-quarter revenue to $2.16 to $2.164 billion; Wall Street's bar sits barely above it 24. Watch US commercial growth against the 149% of the second quarter, and contract value against $2.132 billion 4. The defense ledger pays in cash either way. The labs' contest shows up in the commercial number first.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
