Goldman lifts TSMC's 2028 capex to $98 billion while pushing the Texas payoff past 2032
Goldman Sachs raised TSMC's 2027 and 2028 capex forecasts to $85 billion and $98 billion and said any new Texas fab reaches mass production only after 2032. The TAIEX closed at a record 49,822 with TSMC more than 40% of the index, nine days before the October 15 call.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A $98 billion bill lands before the first Texas wafer
Nine days before TSMC−3.27% — TSMC, down 3.27 percent today reports, Goldman Sachs−0.50% — Goldman Sachs, down 0.50 percent today has priced the AI buildout past the end of the decade. The bank lifted its 2027 and 2028 capital spending forecasts for TSMC to $85 billion and $98 billion, up from $78 billion and $82 billion, and held 2026 at $64 billion 1. Any new Texas fab, the note adds, would not reach mass production until after 2032 1. The money moves now; the silicon lands in six years.
Taiwan's index is already a bet on that capex
The forecast is priced. The TAIEX closed at a record 49,822 on October 6 after touching 49,968.92, with TSMC shares at an all-time high and the company worth more than 40% of the index 2. Goldman raised its Taiwan-listed target to NT$3,300, for 28% upside 1.
Margins dip while sales run past the guide
The bill comes due before the capacity does. TSMC guided third-quarter gross margin down to 65.0% to 67.0% from 67.7% in the second quarter, a dip Goldman pins on the N2 node ramp 31. Sales are not the problem: the company's monthly filings sum to NT$1.49 trillion for the quarter, about $46.7 billion at the 32.0 exchange rate TSMC used for its guidance, above the $45.8 billion top of the range 43. This is a foundry rationing silicon, not chasing it: one trade report counts Nvidia−2.65% — Nvidia, down 2.65 percent today cutting consumer RTX 5070 Ti and 5060 Ti output 30% to 40% in the first half as wafers shifted to AI chips 5.
Gross margin has climbed 14.6 points in ten quarters; the N2 ramp is the first test
- Gross margin
- Estimate
Data
| Gross margin | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 53.1% |
| Q2 '24 | 53.2% |
| Q3 '24 | 57.8% |
| Q4 '24 | 59% |
| Q1 '25 | 58.8% |
| Q2 '25 | 58.6% |
| Q3 '25 | 59.5% |
| Q4 '25 | 62.3% |
| Q1 '26 | 66.2% |
| Q2 '26 | 67.7% |
| Q3 '26e (estimate) | 66% (65–67%) |
The receipts: capex, packaging, nine-month queues
The spending curve bent last year. TSMC spent $29.4 billion in 2024 and $40.7 billion in 2025 6; Goldman now draws the line to $98 billion 1. The destination is packaging: CoWoS capacity, 675,000 wafers in 2025, is forecast to reach 3.48 million by 2028 1. The toolmakers get paid first. Tokyo Electron−2.48% — Tokyo Electron, down 2.48 percent today carries a consensus operating profit of ¥1.025 trillion for the fiscal year, its Korean equipment revenue rose 73% in the June quarter, and lead times on advanced etch and clean tools run past nine months 7.
TSMC's 2028 capex forecast is 2.4 times its 2025 spend
- Capital spending
- Estimate
Data
| Capital spending | |
|---|---|
| 2021 | $30.3B |
| 2022 | $35.2B |
| 2023 | $30.9B |
| 2024 | $29.4B |
| 2025 | $40.7B |
| 2026 (estimate) | $64B |
| 2027 (estimate) | $85B |
| 2028 (estimate) | $98B |
The other side: forecasts, not commitments
None of the far numbers is a commitment. TSMC's $165 billion US pledge of March 2025 is Arizona money: three new fabs, two packaging plants, an R&D center 8. Texas exists so far as Elon Musk calling TSMC talks on his Terafab project "just discussions" 9. Tokyo Electron itself stopped publishing full-year forecasts this year, citing AI procurement volatility 7.
October 15 is the test
TSMC reports at 14:00 Taiwan time on October 15 3. A 2026 capex guide near Goldman's $64 billion, and a named Texas site, would confirm the extension. Anything less, and the market has paid 2028 prices for 2026 silicon.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
