Goldman told clients to hedge AI risk as its bankers stand to collect $79 million leading Anthropic's IPO
The bank's 2027 outlook, published four days before pricing, sees AI investment slowing early next year and two Fed hikes. The same firm's underwriters stand to collect about $79 million on a listing valued near $1.4 trillion.
Vincent Jiangthree-minute read
The week the AI trade gets priced
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh opens it on Monday, November 16, hosting the Fed's first public conference on AI's economic effects in San Francisco, the first public event of the task forces he created after taking office in May 12. Nvidia−3.21% — Nvidia, down 3.21 percent today reports on November 17 under interim chief Colette Kress, after Jensen Huang resigned as chief executive 3. Then Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B prices on November 18 and starts trading on Nasdaq as ANT on the 19th 34.
The filing sells 825 million shares at $70 to $78, raising up to about $64 billion and valuing the maker of Claude at up to roughly $1.4 trillion fully diluted 4. Weeks earlier the company had contemplated $2 trillion; its May funding round valued it at $965 billion 4.
Anthropic's IPO prices well below the $2 trillion it floated weeks earlier
- Valuation
- Estimate
Data
| Valuation | |
|---|---|
| May 2026 round | $965B |
| Contemplated in October (estimate) | $2,000B |
| IPO range top | $1,400B |
One bank, two desks
Goldman Sachs−0.23% — Goldman Sachs, down 0.23 percent today Research published its 2027 outlook, "Growing Pains," on November 14 5. It sees global AI investment rising from $1.1 trillion this year to $1.8 trillion in 2027, adding 0.4 point to world growth, and it tells clients to hedge AI-related risk, flagging an early peak in AI spending among its three main downside risks 5. Its economists expect the Fed to hike in December and again in March, with producer prices already up 6.5 percent year over year in October 563.
On the banking side, the same firm sells the trade. Goldman and Morgan Stanley+0.55% — Morgan Stanley, up 0.55 percent today lead a 22-bank syndicate 7, and Evercore+0.34% — Evercore, up 0.34 percent today ISI puts the fee pool near $395 million, roughly $79 million each for the two leads 89. Goldman president John Waldron will interview Anthropic president Daniela Amodei and finance chief Krishna Rao in front of wealth clients, and trading, lending and wealth revenue follow the listing whichever way the shares trade 9. Goldman had already pulled Anthropic's Claude Code off its bankers' machines before the roadshow 9.
Lead banks take about $79 million each from Anthropic's $395 million fee pool
The two leads split the biggest checks in a $395 million pool
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $79M |
| Morgan Stanley | $79M |
| JPMorgan | $59M |
| Bank of America | $59M |
| Citigroup | $59M |
The fee is certain, the direction is not
IPO buyers take the other side of that ledger. Anthropic booked $33.2 billion of revenue in nine months, up roughly twelvefold, against $895.4 billion of committed spend, mostly compute; run-rate revenue hit about $81 billion in October 34. Strategic investors, Nvidia and Google at $10 billion each, take $26 billion of stock at the IPO price 7, and about a fifth of the deal is earmarked for retail investors, double the norm 4. The book is already covered at the range, CNBC reported, with demand stronger than SpaceX's−2.57% — SpaceX, down 2.57 percent today at the same stage 4.
The hedge case runs through the Fed. Officials increasingly worry the buildout itself is driving prices up, and Warsh's task forces owe their findings by year end 12. Dario Amodei, Anthropic's chief executive, promised to "underpromise and overdeliver" 9. The bankers get paid on the deal; everyone else gets paid on the direction.
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