IBM's newest director buys companies like IBM for a living
Frank Baker, whose Siris Capital has deployed more than $9 billion buying established technology companies, joined a fourteen-member IBM board on 1 October. The same week brought IBM's best day since September, on Accenture's earnings; third-quarter results later this month decide whether that optimism was earned or borrowed.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A board seat filed on a day the stock cheered a rival
On 1 October, IBM's 8-K elected Frank Baker, 53, co-founder and managing partner of Siris Capital Group, to its board and amended the by-laws to seat fourteen directors, both effective that day. 1 Baker joined the Directors and Corporate Governance Committee, the panel that oversees the board's own makeup. 1
The 2.6 percent rise that day, IBM's best session since September, belonged to Accenture, not to the filing. 2 The rival printed fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $18.68 billion against an $18.03 billion consensus, posted its largest single-day stock gain on record, and led with a consulting line of $9.28 billion versus $8.86 billion expected. 32
Accenture beat consensus on both revenue and consulting
- Actual
- Consensus
Data
| Actual | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.68B | $18.03B |
| Consulting | $9.28B | $8.86B |
Consulting is IBM's second-largest business. 2 IBM's own consulting revenue was flat last quarter. 2 Investors took Accenture's beat as evidence that AI is not hollowing out services demand. 2
The mandate reads both ways
Siris has deployed more than $9 billion of equity since inception into "established technology companies with mission-critical products and services that are navigating technology changes." 4 That sentence describes Siris's targets. It also describes IBM.
Baker began in mergers and acquisitions at Goldman Sachs and ran deals at Ripplewood before co-founding a firm with $6.2 billion of committed capital hunting transactions of $100 million to $500 million. 15 IBM's own Confluent purchase, $11 billion in cash, announced 8 December 2025 and closed 17 March, was the bigger swing, as our 3 October analysis of the deal set out. 67
Growth went from 12 percent to 1
IBM revenue growth peaked at 12.1% and fell to 1.1% within two quarters
Data
| Revenue growth, YoY | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | 1.5% |
| Q4 '24 | 1% |
| Q1 '25 | 0.5% |
| Q2 '25 | 7.7% |
| Q3 '25 | 9.1% |
| Q4 '25 | 12.1% |
| Q1 '26 | 9.5% |
| Q2 '26 | 1.1% |
IBM's year-over-year revenue growth ran 12.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2026. 8 On 22 April, with IBM Z revenue up 51 percent, management guided to "5-plus percent" constant-currency growth for 2026 and a similar rate for the second quarter. 9
On 14 July, Krishna pre-announced the collapse: revenue up 1 percent, infrastructure down 7, "a shortfall in our Z performance," customers' "capex reprioritization," "numerous large deals failed to close." 9 Shares fell 25 percent in a day, erasing more than $68 billion, and full-year guidance was cut. 92
Hagens Berman is investigating whether and when IBM had information raising the probability that those large deals were unlikely to close. 9 It is an investigation, not a finding of wrongdoing. 9
The print that settles it
IBM's release credits Baker with "deep expertise, proven leadership, and a strategy-driven mindset" and stops there. 4 No filing ties the seat to any transaction. The stock is down 26 percent this year, third-quarter earnings arrive later this month, and analysts carry a Moderate Buy with an average target of $253.52 and expectations of high-single-digit earnings growth. 2
The tell is consulting revenue. If it grows, Accenture's read-through was a signal and the services-recovery trade holds; if it prints flat again, Thursday's 2.6 percent was borrowed, the fade into the print was right, and the $253.52 target is hope dressed as consensus. 2
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
