Morgan Stanley says sell Hanmi Semiconductor at 82 times earnings even as its chairman keeps buying
Morgan Stanley cut the near-monopoly maker of the machines that stack AI memory to Underweight a week after Samsung ended a decade-long order drought. Q3 results due by November 16 will judge which side is right.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
On October 13, 2026, Morgan Stanley−0.76% — Morgan Stanley, down 0.76 percent today analyst Ryan Kim cut Hanmi Semiconductor (KOSPI: 042700), the Korean maker of chip-assembly tools, from Equalweight to Underweight, a sell rating, with a 200,000-won target 1. The stock closed October 15 at 190,900 won, 55.2 percent below its 52-week high of 426,000 2. The target sits about five percent above a halved price, and the bank still wants out: at that close Hanmi traded at 81.89 times trailing earnings against 7.66 for its sector 2. The note's reasoning is paywalled; only the rating and the number are public 1.
Morgan Stanley's sell target sits five percent above a price already down 55 percent
Data
| Won per share | |
|---|---|
| 52-week high | ₩426,000 |
| Morgan Stanley target (Oct 13) | ₩200,000 |
| Close (Oct 15) | ₩190,900 |
The order book points the other way
Hanmi, founded in 1980 and chaired by Kwak Dong-shin, builds the thermal-compression bonders that stack DRAM dies into high-bandwidth memory, the stacked chips AI accelerators depend on; TrendForce puts its share of that market near 90 percent, with SK hynix−2.44% — SK hynix, down 2.44 percent today and Micron−0.11% — Micron, down 0.11 percent today as anchor customers 35. Its second quarter was the best in company history: revenue of 251.1 billion won, up 39.5 percent, on a 51.9 percent operating margin 4. SK hynix signed a 44.2 billion won contract in June for about 15 of the newest bonders 3. On October 6 Samsung Electro-Mechanics ordered 24.48 billion won of MSVP dicing-and-inspection equipment, Hanmi's first large Samsung Group order since a 2011 patent win over Semes, then Samsung's equipment arm, froze the relationship; delivery runs to December 2027 52. Kwak's greeting in the release was one line: "Welcome to the Samsung Group" 5.
Samsung is back on Hanmi's order book, still far behind SK hynix
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| SK hynix (June 2026) | 44.2B won |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics (Oct 2026) | 24.48B won |
| UTAC (Oct 2026) | 7.8B won |
The 702 billion won buyback does not exist
Word traveled this week that Hanmi had bought 702 billion won of its own shares on October 7 7. The Korean record says otherwise: 70.2 billion won is what chairman Kwak has spent of his own money since 2023, and the October 7 purchase was a 700 million won tranche, 2,549 shares at 274,235 won each, lifting his stake to 33.63 percent 9. No corporate buyback was disclosed. What exists is a chairman averaging down, about 30 percent underwater on his latest buy 29.
The bear case reads the same facts
First-half 2026 revenue fell 7.7 percent and operating profit fell 11.0 percent year on year; one record quarter has not filled that hole 2. More than half of Hanmi's revenue comes from SK hynix, and the two spent roughly a month in a supply standoff before Hanmi's service engineers returned to SK hynix's Icheon fab in September 8. Samsung has never bought the flagship bonder at scale. Asked about it last year, Kwak said only: "If the client wishes, we can proceed" 5.
November 16 settles it
Q3 results are due by November 16 7. Three readings decide the argument: whether TC bonder orders accelerate in the second half as Kwak has forecast 3; whether MSVP sales land near the 700 billion won securities firms expect this year, roughly 30 percent of revenue, after January to August already beat all of 2025 6; and whether Samsung's return widens from substrate tools to the bonders themselves. The bank voted with a price target; the chairman has voted 70.2 billion won of his own cash. The next mark lands in a month.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
