UBS cuts Besi to €159 after it raised its €2.2 billion target; the order book decides October 22

On September 24, 2026, BE Semiconductor▲+1.19% — BE Semiconductor, up 1.19 percent today Industries, the Dutch maker of the machines that bond dies inside AI chip packages, raised its long-term revenue target to €2.2 billion ¹. Twelve days later the cutting started. Bank of America moved Besi from Buy to Neutral at €212 on October 6↗ ³, UBS went to Sell a day later at €159, down from €370↗ ¹, and Barclays trimmed its target at Equalweight ².

The shares fell 5.9% to €180.75 on October 7 and traded at €162.18 on the 15th, 50.6% below the 52-week high of €328.40 ²¹. What the banks dispute is the pace of hybrid bonding, the process that joins stacked dies with direct copper connections instead of solder bumps. UBS put the hybrid-bonding revenue implied by the share price at roughly €936 million for 2030, against its own forecast of €424 million↗ ².

The shortage, not weak demand, is the delay

The mechanism is counterintuitive: memory makers are too busy to switch tools. High-bandwidth memory, the stacked DRAM that feeds AI accelerators, is so scarce that producers can sell nearly everything they make on the qualified old process ². JEDEC, the industry body that writes memory specifications, raised the permitted package height from 720 to 775 microns, letting 16-layer HBM4 stacks stay on solder microbumps rather than move to Besi's copper connections ².

The order evidence is slipping too. UBS expects about 20 hybrid-bonding tool orders in 2028 against a market expectation of 100 ¹. A Korean report says some HBM4 back-end equipment orders at SK hynix▼−2.99% — SK hynix, down 2.99 percent today, the high-bandwidth memory leader, planned for this half may slip into 2027, though it names no suppliers or amounts ⁴. The boom that was supposed to sell Besi's flagship tool is keeping its customers on the old one.

Bank of America's▼−0.05% — Bank of America, down 0.05 percent today note pressed on two fronts: slipping HBM timelines↗, and ASML▼−1.01% — ASML, down 1.01 percent today, the Dutch lithography giant, which has said publicly that it is looking at hybrid bonding↗ ⁵⁶. The threat is "not reflected in the stock," analysts led by Didier Scemama wrote ⁶.

Besi's own numbers still show a boom

Besi's second-quarter numbers show no demand problem. Orders hit €292.9 million, up 128.8% year on year↗, hybrid-bonding customers rose from 15 at the end of 2025 to 21 by mid-2026, and orders over the trailing twelve months reached a record €987.6 million ⁷. Third-quarter revenue is guided up 10 to 15% from the €249.9 million second-quarter base ⁷.

The partners are still lining up. Applied Materials▼−4.25% — Applied Materials, down 4.25 percent today, the American equipment giant, has made Besi an innovation partner at its $5 billion EPIC Center↗, a Silicon Valley R&D facility, alongside Samsung, SK hynix, Micron▼−0.58% — Micron, down 0.58 percent today and TSMC▼−2.88% — TSMC, down 2.88 percent today ⁸. Tata Electronics, the Tata Group's electronics arm, signed a packaging partnership with Besi in India↗, with no value or timeline disclosed ⁹. The screening analytics firm Simply Wall Street asks whether the Applied tie-up leaves the stock undervalued ¹⁰.

The research firm Bernstein expects three of every four hybrid bonders shipped in 2028 to be Besi's ⁶. UBS itself still calls Besi a high-quality company whose valuation implies more 2030 hybrid-bonding revenue than the bank forecasts ².

The October 22 order book is the arbiter

The tell on the day is repeat production orders from memory makers rather than evaluation systems, and management's language on whether adoption shifts toward the HBM5 generation ². Besi reports before the open on October 22, 2026, and the number to beat is the second quarter's €292.9 million in orders ¹⁷.