National Grid raised EPS growth guidance to 15-16% and holds a $1.75 billion stake in US AI data center power
National Grid raised its earnings growth guidance on record capex and a £48.6 billion debt pile, and confirmed a $1.75 billion bet on selling power straight to the AI data centers its grid serves.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
National Grid's−2.85% — National Grid, down 2.85 percent today wires made more money in six months than they ever have, and the utility used the moment to raise its earnings forecast. Underlying operating profit rose 13% to £2.59 billion in the half-year to September 30, underlying earnings per share rose 22% to 36.5p, and full-year EPS growth guidance went up to 15-16% from 13-15% 12. The City had forecast 35.1p 3. Shares jumped as much as 3.4% to their best level since May 3.
The wires monopoly is borrowing to build, and billing for it
First-half capital investment hit a record £6.7 billion, up 33%, on the way to £13.5 billion this year and at least £70 billion over five years, with supply chain and delivery secured for about 80% of that program 1. The City had expected closer to £12 billion of full-year spending 2.
Net debt rose to £48.6 billion from £44.1 billion in March 2, and regulatory gearing is planned back into the high-60s by 2030/31 1. The engine is the new RIIO-T3 price control, the UK regulator's framework that lets National Grid invest in transmission and collect the cost plus a return 2. Morgan Stanley+0.55% — Morgan Stanley, up 0.55 percent today kept the stock as a top pick after the results, with a 1,400p price target 2.
Record first half, bigger full-year plan
The record half already carries more than half of the £13.5 billion full-year plan
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| H1 2026/27 actual | 6.7 |
| City expected FY (estimate) | 12 |
| FY 2026/27 plan (estimate) | 13.5 |
A $1.75 billion stake puts National Grid inside the data-center power business
The results statement carries a $1.75 billion investment in Joulent, a company building multi-gigawatt power for US large-load customers, struck in July through the National Grid Ventures arm; the new fact is that it now sits in the half-year highlights 1. Joulent's first project, Kilby, will deliver about 2.67GW under a 20-year power purchase agreement to a Microsoft-operated data-center campus 5.
Chief executive Zoë Yujnovich calls it exposure to the "AI-driven large load economy" 5. That follows our November 2 report that the first 1.44GW at National Grid's Teesside site contracted onto a rival's private network: the regulated utility is now selling power to the buyers of compute, not just the wires beneath them 6.
The billpayer's side of the ledger
Yujnovich's answer to bill-rise politics is faster delivery, arguing that speeding projects cuts constraint costs for consumers 4. The mechanism working the other way is visible in the accounts: a £48.6 billion debt pile is serviced by bills or by regulators' permission to charge them 12. In New York, the pressure is already documented: our October 3 reporting found the company's gas rate "freeze" left $1.7 billion of recovery waiting on customer bills 6, and the half-year statement confirms a one-year rate stabilization proposal filed for the KEDNY and KEDLI gas businesses 1.
What decides it
Two clocks now run on the same money. In Britain, RIIO-T3 delivery milestones against the £13.5 billion spending year 1. In New York and New England, the rate proceedings that set how much of the build-out lands on bills, one week after a US election run partly on data-center scepticism 13.
Get Power by email, free
How AI's hunger for electricity moves utilities, power plants and the grid. In our daily email, every weekday.
