NextDC fell 42% after a Melbourne suburb's parked cars delayed the power line for its M3 data center
Australia's largest listed data-center developer lost as much as 45 percent of its market value on October 21 after residents of one Melbourne suburb stopped the power line its M3 campus was waiting for, forcing a full-year guidance cut. The delivery gap, not demand, is now the constraint investors price.
Richard Tang · 2 min read
The buyers are ready and the delivery is not, and that difference just cost NextDC−41.72% — NextDC, down 41.72 percent today almost half its market value. Australia's biggest listed data-center developer fell as much as 45 percent to A$5.07 on Wednesday after cutting fiscal 2027 guidance because the power line to its Melbourne M3 campus slipped to fiscal 2028; the stock closed down 42 percent at A$5.35 12. The binding constraint on the AI build-out has moved from chips and signed customers to grid connections and community consent.
A suburb's cars and shovels delayed the power line
The chain runs through one street in Maribyrnong, west Melbourne. Grid operator Jemena suspended high-voltage pole work in September after residents parked cars across access routes and backfilled trenches, and says work cannot restart before February 2027; the council is withholding consent while it consults the community 13. Because Victoria's government enters caretaker mode on November 3 before the November 28 election, the planning decision on M3 stages 6 and 7 is deferred to 2027 3.
NextDC stripped about A$140 million of contracted revenue and EBITDA from guidance, cutting net revenue to A$475-500 million and EBITDA to A$245-265 million 12. It paused all new developments and land purchases, is weighing force majeure on the affected contracts, and warns that service-level credits could push EBITDA below even the new range 13.
The new fiscal 2027 guidance: A$140 million stripped from contracted revenue and EBITDA
- from
- to
Data
| from | to | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | A$475M | A$500M | +5.3% |
| EBITDA | A$245M | A$265M | +8.2% |
This is a repricing, not a demand verdict
Demand is not the problem here: contracts are signed and construction of the data halls continues. But the market had priced NextDC at roughly 37 times fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA against a 22 times global peer average, and UBS expects no profit before fiscal 2031 with debt peaking at A$11.2 billion 1. At that entry price, a delivery slip of one year is a valuation event, not a rounding error.
The same force is visible beyond Melbourne: Bloomberg counts at least 106 US data-center projects blocked or delayed this year, worth about $198 billion, and Oracle−0.90% — Oracle, down 0.90 percent today has invoked force majeure on its New Mexico campus over permitting and power 1. Goldman Sachs+2.35% — Goldman Sachs, up 2.35 percent today initiated NextDC at Neutral eight days before the crash, calling capital "the real brake" and flagging a funding gap above A$1 billion 1.
The concrete thing to watch is NextDC's board decision at the November 20 annual general meeting on selling development sites no longer needed, the results of a full capital-expenditure review due by that date 3. Then watch Jemena's February 2027 restart 3. AI demand is real, and the reward now goes to whoever closes the power gap: behind-the-meter generation, and sites built with the community's consent rather than against it.
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