No bid, no price, no schedule: ICE moves visa vetting onto Palantir Foundry
ICE is moving the applications behind U.S. visa screening onto Palantir's Foundry without a competition, with the price redacted and a 2022 audit's findings still open. In London the same un-competed model is in the High Court, and analysts say a single terminated government contract could collapse the premium.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The vetting machine changes hands
On October 7, ICE published a five-page justification for canceling the competition it had scheduled for July to keep supporting its Visa Security Program Tracking System: operations move to Palantir's+4.89% — Palantir, up 4.89 percent today Foundry instead 1. VSPTS holds the screening reviews, investigative findings and case notes behind U.S. visa decisions, kept for up to 25 years, or 75 for terrorism-related reviews 1.
A bridge contract, and no price for the move
The incumbent, Steampunk, was awarded $1,652,240.82 on September 23 to keep the old system alive for up to two years while ICE researches who can run the migration itself 1. The justification's pricing figures are redacted, it discloses no schedule, and it does not explain how Palantir was selected 1.
In April, this same work was forecast as a five-year, $5 million to $10 million competition 1. The two-year bridge alone is a third of that estimate's low end, before any migration price exists 1. Palantir had already collected about $45.8 million from ICE in June for an HSI Enterprise Lakehouse linking case files across federal systems 1. ICE's terms keep the data agency-owned 2; the ground it runs on is Palantir's.
The audit that outlived the system it flagged
A September 2022 DHS inspector general audit examined 120 visa applications and found 13 where analysts had not supported their conclusions, and in two more, data-transfer failures truncated case notes 1. ICE said it had removed the 4,000-character limit behind the truncations, yet all three audit recommendations were still listed as open on October 9 1. The justification says nothing about whether the migration fixes those defects or inherits them 1.
The growth that carries 158 times earnings
Palantir's second-quarter revenue was $1.935 billion, up 93% 4, a growth rate that has climbed every quarter since late 2023 3. U.S. government revenue rose 90% to $809 million, roughly two-fifths of the total, and U.S. commercial jumped 149% to $764 million, with 2026 guidance raised to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion 4.
U.S. customers are four-fifths of Palantir's business, split evenly between government and commercial
- U.S. government809M41.8%
- U.S. commercial764M39.5%
- International and other362M18.7%
Data
| Slice | Value | Share |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. government | 809M | 41.8% |
| U.S. commercial | 764M | 39.5% |
| International and other | 362M | 18.7% |
The stock trades at 158.1 times trailing earnings against 21.5 for the S&P 500 4. Goldman Sachs upgraded it to buy on October 8 with a $230 target 5. What breaks it, by name: a quarter of U.S. commercial growth below 100%, or a material government contract termination, and government contracts stay terminable at the buyer's convenience 6.
Revenue has climbed every quarter for three years, and Q3 is guided higher
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $0.56B |
| Q4 '23 | $0.61B |
| Q1 '24 | $0.63B |
| Q2 '24 | $0.68B |
| Q3 '24 | $0.73B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.83B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.88B |
| Q2 '25 | $1B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.18B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.41B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.63B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.94B |
| Q3 '26E (estimate) | $2.16B ($2.160–2.164B) |
London: the platform already works, and it is in court
The Metropolitan Police fired the head of its volunteer Special Constabulary this week after Palantir's Foundry, inside the force's lawful business monitoring, caught him copying "view once" images on his work phone 7. The federation representing officers says staff were never told the monitoring upgrade included Palantir's AI 7.
On a separate two-year contract worth up to £50 million, the mayor's policing office called the Met's process a "clear and serious breach" of procedure, noting the force had only ever considered Palantir 89. Palantir is suing to force the award, and the mayor's texts and emails are being searched for disclosure ahead of a January 2027 hearing 10. Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces pressure from Labour MPs and unions to end the company's government contracts 7.
What decides it next
Three readings matter: the migration award ICE has not yet made 1, the January hearing on whether a city can refuse a platform its police already run 10, and third-quarter revenue against the $2.16 billion guide 4. The files will outlive the people they describe; the paper deciding where they live runs five pages with the price blacked out 1.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
