Chips

Nvidia bankrolled its own GPU customers as an 'avalanche' of TSMC wafers loomed, WSJ reports

Nvidia took 19 percent of TSMC's revenue last year, so whether interim chief Colette Kress unwinds the financing that propped up GPU demand is now a TSMC question, priced daily in its New York shares.

Vincent JiangVincent Jiangfour-minute read
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Jensen Huang, left, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba look at a signed plaque during a courtesy call in Tokyo in April 2025
1 / 7Slide 1 of 7
Jensen Huang, then Nvidia's chief executive, at a courtesy call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on April 21, 2025.

The charge: a shortage Nvidia financed

Nvidia−3.21% — Nvidia, down 3.21 percent today said on Thursday November 12 that Jensen Huang had resigned as president and chief executive, handing the company to finance chief Colette Kress as interim chief 1. The exit came days after he admitted an affair with an alleged Chinese spy 1.

That evening, the Wall Street Journal reported that at an August meeting Huang told his senior finance team the wafers and memory Nvidia had committed to buy from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing−2.68% — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, down 2.68 percent today Company, the world's largest contract chipmaker, were "coming at him like an avalanche" 23. The trigger, per the report, was the biggest cloud providers moving to chips of their own 23.

The fix: finance the buyers instead of cutting prices

His fix was to finance AI startups and small cloud providers that could not afford its GPUs, keeping the surplus moving instead of forcing prices down 34.

Nvidia's filings show the machine's scale: $99 billion of investments and $36 billion of cloud-service commitments, arrangements that help AI cloud operators finance the GPUs they buy from Nvidia 1. Kress pushed to rein in that circular financing, helped cut a proposed OpenAI backstop from up to $250 billion to about $125 billion, and was called "a deer in the headlights" for it 34.

The market takes the short side

The claim found its crowd in hours. Reddit's−2.11% — Reddit, down 2.11 percent today r/stocks thread drew 4,337 points and 647 comments by November 14 5. A Taiwan Stock Exchange short-interest weekly dated November 13 put TSMC among its five highlighted names, inside a $41.7 billion aggregate short book 6.

The price had already moved. Taiwan's regulator cut the daily intraday short-selling limit from 30 percent to 3 percent, effective November 9 7. TSMC's New York shares closed Friday at $398.73, about 18 percent below October's high of $487.47, after a near-11 percent single-day fall on November 5 8.

The filings answer with bigger numbers

TSMC keeps posting the opposite of a demand problem. October revenue was NT$586.89 billion, about $17.9 billion, up 59.7 percent from a year earlier: its biggest month on record, and roughly a third of its fourth-quarter guidance in a single month 79. Quarterly revenue has more than doubled since late 2023 10.

TSMC's quarterly revenue has more than doubled since late 2023

From $20.4B in Q4 2023 to a record $46.9B in Q3 2026

$10B$20B$30B$40B$50BQ1 2024Q3 2024Q1 2025Q3 2025Q1 2026Q3 2026$46.89Brecord quarter, booked before therout
Data
Quarterly revenue
Q4 2023$20.36B
Q1 2024$18.53B
Q2 2024$20.7B
Q3 2024$24.05B
Q4 2024$26.73B
Q1 2025$25.42B
Q2 2025$31.95B
Q3 2025$32.48B
Q4 2025$33.45B
Q1 2026$35.43B
Q2 2026$39.85B
Q3 2026$46.89B
Quarterly revenue, US$ billions, from TSMC's SEC filings. Every point is reported revenue, not guidance. Source: TSMC quarterly figures from its SEC filings.10

Customers had prepaid NT$234.2 billion to hold capacity as of June 30, and the portion booked more than a year out had more than doubled to NT$92.4 billion 2. The board had already approved up to $1 billion of stakes in Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B and OpenAI$1.18T — OpenAI, private, latest valuation $1.18T, as The Inference reported on November 10; what is new this week is the claim that part of the demand underneath those orders was Nvidia's own money 349.

The same money turns up in Anthropic's IPO

Anthropic, the AI developer whose IPO prospectus says the world's most advanced chip manufacturing sits "primarily at TSMC," prices its shares on November 18 and starts trading the next day 1112. Seven companies are buying $26 billion of its stock at the IPO price: Nvidia, AMD−10.90% — AMD, down 10.90 percent today, Broadcom−6.53% — Broadcom, down 6.53 percent today, Google, Micron−4.50% — Micron, down 4.50 percent today, Microsoft−0.28% — Microsoft, down 0.28 percent today and TSMC's vehicle 1112. Nvidia, the company accused of manufacturing demand, is one of the seven, on top of $10 billion already invested in Anthropic 1.

Every TSMC growth reading in 2026 came in above the last

Guidance went from ~30% to ~44%; October printed 59.7%

  • Year-over-year revenue growth
  • Estimate
0%20%40%60%2026 outlook, set in JanuaryQ3 2026 revenue2026 outlook, currentOctober 2026 revenuethe print the shorts are testing
Data
Year-over-year revenue growth
2026 outlook, set in January (estimate)30%
Q3 2026 revenue41.2%
2026 outlook, current (estimate)44%
October 2026 revenue59.7%
Year-over-year revenue growth as reported; the two outlook bars are company guidance. Sources: CNBC; Yahoo Finance/TIKR.7,8

Why the two stories have not collided

October counts wafers shipped and paid for 7; the avalanche is a claim about orders not yet placed 3. Nvidia was TSMC's largest customer in 2025, at 19 percent of revenue, or NT$727.0 billion, up from 12 percent a year earlier 2.

Nvidia's inventory has since more than quadrupled, to $31.6 billion 2. The report says Nvidia has already contacted TSMC about winding down coming orders 3; Taiwan's Commercial Times says custom-chip customers would take any capacity freed up, which TSMC has not confirmed 2. What would settle the argument does not exist: no public number says how many wafers the Nvidia-funded clouds absorb, and the avalanche is one newspaper's account of one private meeting 23.

The readings land within days

Nvidia reports on Tuesday November 17, Kress's first earnings call as interim chief, where the test is whether inventory and supply commitments keep climbing 12. TSMC's November sales follow in early December; its mid-January fourth-quarter report brings the first 2027 outlook and the capital-expenditure budget 29.

The tell is capital expenditure: $60 billion to $64 billion held for 2026 says the order book is real, and a cut gives the avalanche a date 8. Chief executive C.C. Wei says demand "is still far above our capability today to supply," while planning 2027 prudently 9. Against that, TSMC's customers have NT$234.2 billion of prepayments already on the books 2.

TSMC's quarterly capex has more than doubled since late 2023

$0B$5B$10B$15B$20BQ1 '24Q3 '24Q1 '25Q3 '25Q1 '26Q3 '26$13.9Bbiggest quarter so far
Data
Quarterly capital expenditure
Q4 '23$5.53B
Q1 '24$5.66B
Q2 '24$6.32B
Q3 '24$6.55B
Q4 '24$11.13B
Q1 '25$10.02B
Q2 '25$10.17B
Q3 '25$9.43B
Q4 '25$11.4B
Q1 '26$10.9B
Q2 '26$15.85B
Q3 '26$13.9B
Quarterly capital expenditure, US$ billions, from TSMC's SEC filings. The 2026 budget the story cites is $60 billion to $64 billion for the full year, which the company has held. Source: TSMC quarterly figures from its SEC filings.13

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More about NVIDIA

NVDAFiscal Q2 2027
Fiscal Q2 2027 · quarter to 26 Jul 2026 · changes vs a year earlier

Revenue rose 106% to $96.2B, 92.5% of it from Data Center, “driven by the ramp of our Blackwell Ultra infrastructure”. Gains on equity stakes of $7.8B lifted net income to $59.7B.

Revenue$96.2B▲ 106%
Gross margin75.0%▲ 2.6 pts
Operating margin66.2%▲ 5.4 pts
Net income$59.7B▲ 126%
Hyperscale$48.7B▲ 102%AI clouds & enterprise$40.3B▲ 138%Data Center$89.0B▲ 117%Edge Computing$7.2B▲ 27%Revenue$96.2B▲ 106%Gross profit$72.1B75.0% marginCost of revenue$24.1BOther income$7.8Bequity-stake gainsOperating income$63.7B66.2% marginOperating expenses$8.4BNet income$59.7B▲ 126%Tax$11.8B16.5% rateR&D$7.1BSG&A$1.4B
Show as a table
LineValue
Revenue$96.2B
Gross margin75.0%
Operating margin66.2%
Net income$59.7B
Hyperscale$48.7B
AI clouds & enterprise$40.3B
Data Center$89.0B
Edge Computing$7.2B
Gross profit$72.1B
Cost of revenue$24.1B
Other income$7.8B
Operating income$63.7B
Operating expenses$8.4B
Tax$11.8B
R&D$7.1B
SG&A$1.4B

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