OpenAI settles for $1.25 trillion, below the $1.405 trillion Anthropic asks public buyers Nov. 18
The private ceiling for AI now sits below what Anthropic is asking public buyers to pay on November 18, and venture firms are already pushing founders to cut their marks. The two labs were on pace to absorb more than a third of all startup capital.
Vincent Jiangtwo-minute read
OpenAI asked for $1.4 trillion and closed at $1.25 trillion
In late September, OpenAI$1.18T — OpenAI, private, latest valuation $1.18T entered funding talks seeking at least $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation, up from its last mark of $852 billion 1. Investors called the terms too lofty, a November 5 selloff erased $2.5 trillion from the Nasdaq, and the company cut its valuation target to $1.25 trillion and the raise by a third 13. The first $11 billion closed on November 6 with SoftBank and MGX participating, and the remainder, now up to $20 billion, wraps in the weeks ahead 23.
Two marks price the whole market
OpenAI and Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B were on pace to absorb more than a third of all capital invested in startups globally this year, per Bloomberg Intelligence 1. So their marks set everyone else's. B Capital co-founder Howard Morgan is telling founders who wanted high single-digit billions, some of them with zero revenue, that the number is "too high given your current revenues," and Theory Ventures' Tomasz Tunguz says conservative multiples arrived within two weeks 1. If Anthropic's listing falters, "some companies are going to go out of business," says Sapphire Ventures president Jai Das 1.
OpenAI closed $150B under its ask; Anthropic's IPO tops out at $1.405T
Private money capped OpenAI at $1.25T; public buyers are asked for more
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| OpenAI, last round | $852B |
| OpenAI, Sept ask | $1.4T |
| OpenAI, closed Nov 6 | $1.25T |
| Anthropic, May round | $965B |
| Anthropic, IPO range top | $1.405T |
| Anthropic, bankers weighing (estimate) | $1.5T+ |
Usage is climbing while the ceiling falls
The repricing is not a demand story. OpenAI's quarterly revenue jumped nearly 50% to $10 billion 4, and Anthropic's run-rate revenue reached about $81 billion at the end of October 5. Vinod Khosla, the Sun Microsystems co-founder and early OpenAI backer, says usage, measured in tokens, is the number to watch, not price swings 4. The strain sits with the payers: combined free cash flow at Amazon−1.20% — Amazon, down 1.20 percent today, Alphabet+2.69% — Alphabet, up 2.69 percent today, Meta−2.63% — Meta, down 2.63 percent today, Microsoft−2.43% — Microsoft, down 2.43 percent today and Oracle+5.84% — Oracle, up 5.84 percent today ran at about minus $31 billion in the third quarter, per Goldman Sachs+1.63% — Goldman Sachs, up 1.63 percent today, after positive quarters through 2025 4.
The public market sets its price on November 18
Anthropic, the five-year-old maker of Claude, offers 825 million shares at $70 to $78 on November 18, trading the next day on Nasdaq as ANT, topping out at $1.405 trillion fully diluted against a $965 billion May round 5. AMD+11.72% — AMD, up 11.72 percent today, Broadcom+6.48% — Broadcom, up 6.48 percent today, Google, Micron+9.36% — Micron, up 9.36 percent today, Microsoft, Nvidia−5.72% — Nvidia, down 5.72 percent today and TSMC+2.40% — TSMC, up 2.40 percent today have committed $26 billion at the IPO price, and the book was covered at launch, with bankers weighing pricing above the range toward $1.5 trillion 58.
CoreWeave's one-day rebound shows demand is still there
CoreWeave's 24.71% earnings-day rebound, after a 65% slide from May, shows how fast demand returns when numbers land 67. If Anthropic prints above $1.25 trillion, public buyers are paying more than private money would bear for its rival; the 20% retail slice, triple the norm, is the demand that has to hold 5.
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