PG&E defers $2 billion of capex and rations new power hookups; its $73 billion plan is the test
Two days after California's session ended without the wildfire-liability reform its plan assumed, PG&E launched a strategic review, deferred $2 billion of 2027 capex and pushed new large loads past an initial 1.6 gigawatts. The fiscal third-quarter call now tests whether the $73 billion plan through 2030 survived the review.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A weekend of handfuls, a bigger cutoff on paper
PG&E warned about 12,200 customers across 17 counties that public-safety shutoffs could run from October 9 through the weekend 1; by Saturday afternoon only handfuls in five counties were actually dark 2. The bigger cutoff had already happened, on paper, on September 2.
The plan assumed a law that never came
On its July 23 call, PG&E sized a $73 billion plan through 2030, $16 billion of it resiliency and $23 billion capacity and new business, and said it assumed a constructive outcome from the legislature 4. The session ended August 31 with no reform. After shares fell 20% on the amended Senate bill, the company launched a strategic review, cut the 2027 plan to $11.4 billion from $13.4 billion, deferred new large load beyond an initial 1.6 gigawatts, and dropped its five-year plan and growth rate beyond 2027 3.
Capex is the engine, and it just stalled
Capital investment drove $0.09 of the $0.19 first-half core earnings gain, to $0.83 a share 4. Debt stands at 231.2% of market value against 21% for the S&P 500, and the stock trades at 8.8 times earnings against 21.5 for the index 4.
PG&E's quarterly capex peaked at $3.36B in Q1 2026, and the 2027 plan is now $2B smaller
Data
| Quarterly capex | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $2.42B |
| Q4 '23 | $2.61B |
| Q1 '24 | $2.64B |
| Q2 '24 | $2.3B |
| Q3 '24 | $2.61B |
| Q4 '24 | $2.83B |
| Q1 '25 | $2.64B |
| Q2 '25 | $3.07B |
| Q3 '25 | $2.93B |
| Q4 '25 | $3.16B |
| Q1 '26 | $3.36B |
| Q2 '26 | $2.97B |
Big loads get a floor, not a ceiling
The rationing has a product. Flex Connect, two years old, gives large customers a firm floor and a dynamic ceiling: energized in months instead of years, throttled when the grid is tight. Five active and about 85 prospective customers, mostly EV charging, queue through it; data-center prospects reach 10 megawatts. Sites drew their full requested capacity in 90% of hours and were curtailed less than 1% of the time, and PG&E wants regulators to make the pilot standard 5. The utility the AI boom cast as its power bottleneck is selling throttled megawatts, and calls it a bridge, not a substitute for wires 5.
Seven sells, one buy, one call left
Management still builds: a 10-year plan filed October 1 to bury 5,000 miles of line, with $117 billion in expected benefits 7, plus 2027 guidance of $1.78 to $1.82 a share 3. San Francisco's mayor and city attorney want state regulators to investigate after 40 major unplanned outages this year 6.
PCG rose 3.9% on October 9 8. Insiders sold seven times and bought once in six months, including 31,250 shares from Chief Executive Patti Poppe worth about $512,000 8.
PG&E insiders sold $4.8 million of stock in six months and bought $91,500
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Santos | $2.85M |
| Glickman | $0.77M |
| Peterman | $0.53M |
| Poppe | $0.51M |
| Fugate | $0.09M |
| Cooper | $0.04M |
| Larsen (buy) | -$0.09M |
The fiscal third-quarter call is the test PG&E's own July guidance set: reiterate the $73 billion plan with no new equity, or concede the review changed it 4. Poppe has already picked her posture: "PG&E will not wait for the policy framework to change" 3.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
