Red Cat's chairman sold at $10.45, then $7.74, and now files to sell at $4.51

The notice, three days after the drone show

The SEC accepted Jeffrey M. Thompson's Form 144, a notice of a proposed insider sale↗, on October 15 ¹. Thompson is chairman and chief executive of Red Cat Holdings·−3.67% — Red Cat Holdings, down 3.67 percent as of its last quote (Nasdaq: RCAT), the Utah drone maker, valued at $748.3 million and due to report third-quarter results on November 12 against a 2026 revenue target of $150 million to $180 million it has not cut ²³. His notice proposes selling 450,000 shares through Charles Schwab for a stated $2,031,030 ¹.

Three tickets on one notice

The same filing lists two completed sales: 150,000 shares on August 17 for $1,568,190↗, at a Form 4 weighted average of $10.45, and 150,000 on September 15 for $1,160,310 ¹². Everything runs through a Rule 10b5-1 plan, the pre-committed trading schedule insiders adopt so sales are not reactions to what they know, dated April 1 in the notice; its terms are not disclosed ¹. Director Nicholas Reyland Liuzza sold 65,000 shares for $552,500, and TipRanks reads sentiment across 20 insiders as negative ⁴.

A $748 million stock 49 cents above its low

Red Cat closed at $4.90 on October 15 against a 52-week range of $4.41 to $18.78, after trading near $8.20 the evening it reported June-quarter results in August ³⁵. On October 14 the stock-research firm Zacks cut it from hold to strong sell↗ ³. That same week, at the Association of the United States Army's annual convention, Red Cat folded its Teal Drones and FlightWave Aerospace units into one brand, Red Cat Aerial, and unveiled TRICHON, a hand-launched surveillance tricopter ⁶.

The arithmetic under the retained target

June-quarter revenue↗ was $20.19 million against an operating loss of $38.65 million, and the loss has widened every quarter since the start of 2025 ³⁷. First-half revenue totals $35.66 million, so the low end of guidance, reaffirmed in August↗, implies about $57 million a quarter for the rest of 2026, more than double Red Cat's best quarter, the $26.23 million booked last December ⁷⁸. Cash of $325.6 million covers that June-quarter loss for roughly two years at the same rate ⁷.

What the selling does not say

The plan predates the slide: April 1 came months before the stock reached the low $4s ¹. The 750,000 noticed shares are less than half of one percent of the 152.7 million outstanding, about $4.76 million gross, and Thompson still directly held about 12.6 million shares after August ¹². He signed the filing's standard representation that he knows of no undisclosed material adverse information ¹. The Street holds: Evercore·−0.99% — Evercore, down 0.99 percent as of its last quote ISI kept a Buy and a $15 target on October 15↗, consensus sits at Strong Buy with a $16.57 average, and Piper Sandler started coverage at Hold, $9, in September ⁴⁹. Thompson's own August case was "revenue increased more than fivefold year-over-year↗," with gross margins up 39 percent ⁵.

November 12 decides the argument

Third-quarter results land November 12 ³. The test is the quarter's revenue against the $57 million pace the target implies, and the Form 4 filings that will show how much of the October notice actually executed ¹. Between the first ticket and the latest notice, the stated value per share, gross divided by shares, more than halved while the size tripled ¹.