Samsung builds a second Texas fab on a $44 billion site while TSMC only sends scouts
Samsung announced a second, bigger 2nm fab in Taylor, Texas on October 16, one day after TSMC confirmed it is only scouting the state. One foundry is building before it has the customers; the other has the customers and has built nothing in Texas yet.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
On October 16, Samsung+2.62% — Samsung, up 2.62 percent today gathered reporters beside its half-finished Taylor, Texas fab, where Jonathan Taylor, executive vice president of Infra Technology at Samsung Austin Semiconductor, said the company will build a second plant next door. Fab 2 will make 2-nanometer chips, run one and a half times the size of Fab 1, break ground in early November and finish in 2030, with roughly 3,500 direct jobs across the campus once both plants operate 1. Alongside the announcement came $22.84 million in community and workforce investments across Central Texas, including Taylor ISD career programs 1. The first Taylor plant only reaches full operations at the end of 2026 1. Samsung has already committed $44 billion to the site 2, and it is adding a second fab before the first one has produced a full quarter of output.
TSMC has the customers and only scouts
The day before, at its Q3 earnings call on October 15, TSMC−2.33% — TSMC, down 2.33 percent today confirmed it has dispatched site-evaluation teams to Texas to assess a second US campus beyond Arizona, with CEO C.C. Wei announcing the technical review while no board approval exists and no acreage or jurisdictions named 2. TSMC has a record quarter behind it: NT$1,494.24 billion in revenue, up 50.9% year over year, a $265 billion Arizona pledge including a $100 billion July tranche, and 2026 capex guidance of $60 billion to $64 billion 2.
Samsung builds before it has customers
The complication is who actually holds the customers. TSMC holds 72.5% of the advanced packaging market against Samsung's 5.9% 3, and Nvidia−1.59% — Nvidia, down 1.59 percent today, Apple+0.16% — Apple, up 0.16 percent today and AMD−6.27% — AMD, down 6.27 percent today buy virtually all their high-volume chips from TSMC; Nvidia's Jensen Huang says 100% of his company's core business goes there 3. Samsung's named 2nm anchor customer is Tesla−2.78% — Tesla, down 2.78 percent today 3. TSMC can afford to scout; Samsung has to fill. And Samsung is squeezed from below too: Chinese newcomer CXMT has lifted its global DRAM revenue share to 10% in the second quarter, from 4% a year earlier, while Samsung holds the lead at 38% 3.
CXMT's DRAM share jumped from 4% to 10% while Samsung builds its foundry bet
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Samsung | 38% |
| SK Hynix | 25% |
| Micron | 24% |
| CXMT | 10% |
Tool vendors get paid either way
Both foundries would fight over the same Texas subsidies and engineers, and TSMC's arrival would put it inside Samsung's primary production corridor 2. The tailwind either way is equipment spending: SEMI projects Americas 300mm fab equipment investment more than doubling from $18.1 billion in 2026 to $40.6 billion by 2029 4, and Applied Materials−4.89% — Applied Materials, down 4.89 percent today, Lam Research−4.95% — Lam Research, down 4.95 percent today and Tokyo Electron anticipate secondary installation revenue if TSMC adds a second US state, with duplicated maintenance hubs between Phoenix and central Texas 2.
What decides it
What to watch: whether Samsung lands a second named 2nm customer before Fab 2's 2030 completion, and whether TSMC's Texas review, which precedes its annual capital allocation ahead of a January 2027 board meeting, turns the scouts into shovels 2. Investors pressing the trade should weigh Samsung's utilization risk on a $44 billion campus whose named customer list starts with Tesla 23 against the equipment makers booked on both campuses 24.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
