Savers sought 11.5% of BlackRock's $23.1 billion HPS lending fund against a 5% cap; earnings come October 14
HPS's $23.1 billion lending fund drew withdrawal requests for 11.5% of shares last quarter, after 13.3%, against a customary 5% payout cap. BlackRock's October 14 report is the first firm-level read on whether the exit queue draining private credit is really clearing, even as the firm talks its way into OpenAI's $30 billion round.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
BlackRock+0.19% — BlackRock, up 0.19 percent as of its last quote reports third-quarter results on Wednesday, October 14, before the opening bell, and the number that decides the trade is not the asset total. It is the queue at the HPS Corporate Lending Fund, the $23.1 billion vehicle inside a private credit arm with more than $197 billion of assets that BlackRock bought in 2024. Savers asked to redeem 11.5% of its shares last quarter, after 13.3% in the one before; the fund pays out 5% a quarter, the customary threshold. 123
The gate pays 5% while savers ask for double
Requests have run at more than twice the gate for two straight quarters. The fund has bought back about $1.7 billion of shares across the three repurchase periods ended June 30, and its Class I shares have returned 9.9% annualized since inception, numbers meant to say the portfolio is sound and the queue is the problem. Requests at BlackRock's smaller credit funds eased as well, and Evercore's+0.13% — Evercore, up 0.13 percent as of its last quote Glenn Schorr wrote that "the redemption backlog is now clearing." The stock rose 2.4% the day that filing landed, September 11. 2
Mid-pack in an industry-wide exit queue
HPS is nowhere near the worst queue on the Street. Blue Owl's Technology Income Corp took requests for 39% of shares, after 38.1% in Q2, and has paid about $446 million over six months, roughly a third of what savers asked. Cliffwater faced about 16% and will fill a third; Blackstone's BCRED held its 5% cap against roughly 10%; KKR honored 5.06% in full rather than prorate. 45
Q3 withdrawal requests ran past the 5% gate at every major private credit fund
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Blue Owl Technology Income | 39% |
| Blue Owl Credit Income | 16.8% |
| Cliffwater Corporate Lending | 16% |
| HPS Corporate Lending (BLK) | 11.5% |
| Blackstone BCRED | 10% |
| KKR FS Income Trust Select | 5.06% |
Both sides of the AI trade
The rest of the machine is minting. BlackRock ended June with a record $15.34 trillion under management, $192 billion of quarterly net inflows, and revenue up 31% at $7.08 billion. 6 Wednesday's consensus reads $7.45 billion of revenue and $14.04 of earnings per share, an estimate revised lower, with performance fees expected to fall 20%. 1
Revenue set a record in three of the last four quarters, and the Q3 consensus points to another
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q2 '24 | $4.81B |
| Q3 '24 | $5.2B |
| Q4 '24 | $5.68B |
| Q1 '25 | $5.28B |
| Q2 '25 | $5.42B |
| Q3 '25 | $6.51B |
| Q4 '25 | $7.01B |
| Q1 '26 | $6.7B |
| Q2 '26 | $7.08B |
| Q3 '26 (estimate) | $7.45B |
Shares trade more than 8% below this year's high, against an average analyst target of $1,305, about 30% above the price. 3 Reuters attributes the saver retreat partly to "the potential impact of AI on software companies, a key borrower base" for direct lenders. 2 The same firm is in talks to join OpenAI's$1.18T — OpenAI, private, latest valuation $1.18T $30 billion round at a set $1.4 trillion pre-money valuation, alongside a UAE syndicate, MGX included, weighing up to $10 billion. 78 BlackRock is negotiating to buy equity in the AI boom while its lending funds' savers queue out of the loans exposed to it.
What Wednesday decides
March is the caution: BlackRock gated a different credit fund and lost nearly 7% of its stock in a single session. 6 If the print shows the queue shrinking, the record-asset story leads. If requests stick above the gate, the $1,305 club is leaning on ETFs to carry the credit arm.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
