Silicon Labs' $9.06 spread to Texas Instruments now hinges on Beijing

Silicon Labs↗ closed October 7 at $221.94 ⁴. Texas Instruments'▼−0.03% — Texas Instruments, down 0.03 percent today contract says $231.00 a share in cash↗ ¹. The $9.06 between them is what arbitrage desks are being paid to wait out a deal whose American antitrust review is already finished ³.

The $9.06 spread is the whole trade

TI agreed on February 4, 2026, to pay $231.00 a share, about $7.5 billion enterprise value, funded from cash and debt with no financing contingency, and expects to close in the first half of 2027 ¹. The stock's all-time high, $222.51 on October 1↗, sits below the offer ¹⁰. At $221.94 the gap pays 3.9% measured against the $231 offer, 4.1% measured against the close, for a wait TI caps at mid-2027: roughly 5% annualized if it runs to the end of June ¹⁴.

The snag is not where the coverage points

The fresh snag reporting tells readers to watch the US Hart-Scott-Rodino review and Brussels ⁷. Silicon Labs' own filing says the US waiting period expired at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on May 22↗, with other approvals still outstanding ³. The open file sits in Beijing: as of June 11, China's market regulator had not formally accepted the merger filing↗ ⁵. A September 10 report that neither company answered said the regulator was readying a phase 2 review↗ after canvassing industry remarks, with one Chinese company complaining about higher prices and bundling ⁶.

What a break costs, per the contract

The offer was a 68% premium, which puts the pre-deal price near $137, about where the shares traded the day before the offer ⁷⁵. The agreement prices the tail: TI owes Silicon Labs $499 million if the deal dies on regulatory grounds↗, on an outside date of February 4, 2027, that extends to August 2027 and then February 2028 ². Eight analysts average a $222.86 target with a high of exactly $231 ⁴. The street prices the offer as the ceiling.

The standalone floor grows and still bleeds

Second-quarter revenue was $228.19 million, up 18.3%, against a $10.7 million GAAP operating loss, and guidance is suspended pending the deal ⁴. Trailing revenue runs at $855.9 million, up 21.7%, at a 60.6% gross margin and an operating loss equal to 5.1% of sales ⁸. The one new piece of evidence on the standalone case shipped the day of that close: a public beta of the Simplicity AI SDK, which lets GitHub Copilot, Cursor and Codex configure, build and flash Bluetooth LE projects, with a Hardware Intent agent alpha due January 2027 ⁹.

The deal probably closes, and that is the point

The buyer is committed, with no financing out ¹, walking costs $499 million ², and TI projects about $450 million of annual synergies within three years of close ¹. China has conditioned semiconductor deals more often than it has vetoed them ⁵.

Three dates decide the wait

Watch for any sign that Beijing has accepted the filing, which should pull the spread toward a couple of dollars ⁵. Then the November 3 Q3 print, the first since guidance was suspended ⁴, and the January alpha ⁹. The market is paying 3.9% to learn whether China's silence is procedure or leverage.