SoftBank's $6 Billion 1X Talks Meet a 12-Week Shipping Deadline
Six weeks after the talks were reported, SoftBank has not signed, OpenAI has said it will build its own humanoid, and 1X has about 12 weeks to make good on first shipments of its $20,000 home robot. The $6 billion price now rides on the shipping date.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
No signature, no denial, and 12 weeks left
Six weeks after a report, citing people briefed on the deal, put SoftBank in talks to buy a majority of 1X Technologies at about $6 billion, no deal has been announced and neither company has denied the talks 1. Coverage as late as September 10 still described the negotiation as live 2. 1X's own newsroom has been quiet since a July 9 post about NEO's hands 3, and no delivery to a paying customer had been publicly confirmed as of October 2 4. The company has promised the first shipments in 2026 5, which leaves about 12 weeks on the calendar.
The price climbed while the product waited
The price has moved faster than the product. OpenAI's startup fund led a $23.5 million round in 2023, when 1X was seeking a $375 million pre-money valuation; a January 2025 financing valued it near $820 million; the SoftBank talks mark it near $6 billion, a 16-fold climb in three years 6. OpenAI explored buying 1X outright in 2025, and those talks collapsed 6. Beneath the number sits an order book 1X says it filled in five days: 10,000 NEOs, a full year of production, booked after the October 28, 2025, pre-order opened at $20,000 apiece or $499 a month 45.
1X's price mark climbed 16-fold in three years; the top rung is still only talks
- Valuation
- Estimate
Data
| Valuation | |
|---|---|
| 2023 sought | $0.38B |
| Jan 2025 | $0.82B |
| 2026 talks (estimate) | $6B |
The 2023 backer became a competing builder
On September 3 Sam Altman said "We will definitely do a humanoid," and OpenAI is advertising 19 robotics jobs, four of them in actuator design, among the most supply-constrained components in a robot's body 7. The investor behind NEO's AI halo now intends to build the body too.
Promise is the currency, until someone has to ship
Figure's valuation ran from $2.6 billion to $39 billion in 19 months while its robots stayed in pilot projects 8. 1X carries the same fog with one difference: 10,000 people hold paid places in a queue.
Fold into Son's stack, or fund the make-good alone
If Masayoshi Son closes, 1X joins a robotics stack that already holds ABB's robot business, agreed at $5.4 billion 1, and a SoftBank-led $1.4 billion round in brain-maker Skild AI at a valuation above $14 billion 7. The money is partly borrowed: SoftBank retired $25.9 billion of OpenAI bridge financing on September 15 and is raising $10 billion to $20 billion in fresh debt 2, on top of an expected $64.6 billion cumulative position in OpenAI 6. If the talks slip, 1X meets its queue alone, with first units still slated for employee homes 5 and some chores run by remote human "Experts," a labor cost inside every early robot 4.
The tell: one confirmed delivery
Watch a single event: a NEO in a paying customer's home before 2027, a first delivery 1X was still promising in mid-September 49. Nothing else on the calendar reprices the talks.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
