SpaceX is retiring Falcon 9, which flew 85% of U.S. launches in 2025, with Space Force flights booked to 2032
The Space Force has Falcon launches booked through fiscal 2032, but SpaceX stops selling Falcon 9 flights after 2028 and the replacement rocket has no payload fairing for other customers. Starship's Flight 15 in mid-November is the first test of whether the 250-flight model behind SPCX is real.
Richard Tang · 2 min read
SpaceX+3.65% — SpaceX, up 3.65 percent today is retiring the rocket that carries almost everyone, and the plan is now on record. On November 4, Scientific American reported that SpaceX plans to wind down Falcon 9, which flew 85% of U.S. launches in 2025, within the next few years 1. The Space Force's own contract calendar sits in the same story: Falcon contracts run through 2028, but the Space Force has launches planned through fiscal 2032, and SpaceX has already rebuffed requests for more. 1
SpaceX separately told NASA it will stop selling Falcon 9 commercial launches after 2028 and retire Crew Dragon by 2030 or earlier, and has moved Falcon engineers to Memphis, Tennessee, for AI data-center work. 2
The money moved the same day
SpaceX's listed shares (ticker SPCX) fell 4.49% to $134.97 on November 4 and slipped below their $135 IPO price overnight into November 5. 34 The drop tracked the Democratic midterm sweep: congressional committees are expected to investigate Musk's tenure leading the Department of Government Efficiency, the cost-cutting office he ran in 2025, and the October disruption of Starshield, SpaceX's military satellite network, in Ukraine. 34
The equity case is now a cadence bet
The Sequoia shareholder model behind the $731 billion bull case needs 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. 5
The bull case rides on Starship cadence going from 2 flights to 250
The model needs 250 Starship flights in 2028, 125 times this year's count
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 |
| 2027 | 38 |
| 2028 (estimate) | 250 |
Unless that cadence arrives, what Falcon 9 earns is simply lost, not replaced. 1 Starship still lacks the payload fairing door non-Starlink satellite buyers need, so the customers Falcon 9 serves today have no ride on the replacement. 1 New Glenn has been grounded since a May 28 hotfire explosion and Vulcan returns only mid-November, so the gap has no backups waiting. 1
A competitor's rocket sets NASA's calendar
NASA has already scheduled around its own supplier's pivot: Administrator Jared Isaacman says the agency commits its crew launch only once Blue Origin's lander is in orbit, so a competitor's rocket sets the Artemis III calendar. 6 Flight 15, slated for mid-November, is the first datapoint that says whether the 250-flight model is a plan or a wish; if it slips, the customers Falcon 9 leaves behind have no ride and no replacement. 1
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