Red Cat announced four deals in a month without an order; it needs $57 million a quarter to hit guidance
Red Cat signed a non-exclusive GPS-denied navigation MOU on November 2 with no purchase order and no customer, its fourth headline in a month, while bookings run at a third of the pace guidance needs. November 16 is the test.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Red Cat Holdings+6.90% — Red Cat Holdings, up 6.90 percent today, the Salt Lake City maker of Black Widow drones, the U.S. Army's short-range reconnaissance drone, and Blue Ops boats, signed a memorandum of understanding on November 2 with Sine Advanced Engineering, the U.S. arm of Ukraine-rooted Sine Engineering, to put GPS-denied navigation and resilient communications into its aircraft and uncrewed surface vessels 1. The document commits the two companies only to integration and evaluation: it is non-exclusive, carries no financial terms, no purchase order and no named customer or program 1.
Red Cat says Sine's integration was crucial to the success of Hellcat, one of its aerial drone platforms, in Ukraine, and published no performance figures or test results to check against 1.
The fourth announcement, none of them an order
The Sine deal makes four headlines in a month 12. On October 22 Blue Ops opened orders for the 18-foot B-18 and 39-foot B-39 boats, with no customer and no revenue named; on October 19 Red Cat signed an agreement to buy Austria's Steyr Motors, a diesel engine maker, for €39.00 a share in cash, about €205 million, a 28.9% premium 25. That bid needs 50% acceptance plus clearances in Austria, Italy, Australia and the UK, with acceptance closing December 18 2.
The arithmetic the announcements have to outrun
Guidance for 2026 is $150 million to $180 million 5. The first half booked $35.7 million, so the second half needs roughly $57 million to $72 million a quarter against a June quarter of $20.2 million 5. The chart is the gap.
Revenue is climbing fast and still trails the guidance floor by roughly triple
Revenue tripled in a year and still sits a third of the pace guidance needs
Data
| Quarterly revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | $1.63M |
| Q2 '25 | $3.22M |
| Q3 '25 | $9.65M |
| Q4 '25 | $26.23M |
| Q1 '26 | $15.47M |
| Q2 '26 | $20.19M |
Shares at a new low, insiders selling into the bid
Meanwhile the shares closed at $4.00 on November 4, a new low, down 49.56% for the year, valuing the company at about $610.9 million 23. Seven analysts average a $15.57 target and Roth MKM, a brokerage, sits at $25 35. Piper Sandler, also a brokerage, holds the outlier Neutral at $6 35. Newswire records also show three insider sales: $1.57 million on August 19, $1.16 million on September 18 and $676,500 on October 19, the day the Steyr bid was announced 3.
What Monday the 16th decides
Q3 results land after the close on November 16, then management meets investors at Deutsche Bank's defense summit on November 18 and Bank of America's+0.38% — Bank of America, up 0.38 percent as of its last quote forum on December 3 4. The report has to show booked revenue against the guide, any change to it, and whether any announcement, Sine included, has become a purchase order with a name attached. Until then, no performance figures or customer orders support the Sine claim, and the Steyr cash commitment stands against a company booking a third of the pace it promised 15.
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