Vistra guided 2027 EBITDA to $7.7 to $8.5 billion with 98% of output hedged before the Texas vote

Vistra▲+9.69% — Vistra, up 9.69 percent today, the Texas merchant power generator, used its third-quarter report↗ to settle, for one year at least, the fight Texas started on November 3 ¹². Ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA rose to $2.38 billion from $1.58 billion a year earlier, 2026 guidance was raised to $7.1–7.5 billion, and 2027 was guided for the first time at $7.7–8.5 billion, about 11% growth at the midpoint ¹².

Revenue climbed 28% to $6.35 billion, short of the $6.79 billion analysts expected, and the stock still jumped about 8% ¹². The market was not buying the quarter; it was buying back a 2027 Vistra had already sold ¹².

A governor can pause a data center, not a contract

Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat who ousted incumbent Republican Greg Abbott on a pledge to halt new data centers until the legislature passes protections, takes office in January ³⁴. Vistra lost about 16% in the week after the vote ¹. But a hedge is a contract: a governor arriving in January cannot reprice power sold in October, and by October 30 Vistra had hedged about 98% of its expected 2027 output↗ ¹.

Even after the jump the stock trades at about 14 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of 15 and up from 13 before the print ¹. The board added $1.5 billion to the buyback, and the shareholders who sold the political risk sold below the company's usual multiple ¹.

The exposed year is 2028, and Vistra has said so

Chief executive Jim Burke said in August that data centers would drive load "particularly in 2028 and beyond," the years the hedges have rolled off ⁶. The 5,500-megawatt Cogentrix gas fleet Vistra closed on October 30 skipped Texas entirely, as we noted on November 2, a choice that now looks well timed ⁷.

Peers carry the same question with less cover. Talen Energy▲+6.92% — Talen Energy, up 6.92 percent today guides 2027 about 26% above 2026, on roughly 70% hedged↗; Vistra guides about 11% growth on 98% ¹⁵. NRG Energy▲+9.96% — NRG Energy, up 9.96 percent today trades at 9.5 times forward earnings ¹. Demand itself did not move on election night: ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, lists roughly 474 gigawatts of proposed projects in its interconnection queue, mostly large loads, and what the moratorium decides is whether they connect ⁶.

The tests after the hedge wall are already on the calendar

Burke used Friday's call to announce a new 20-year contract at the Odessa gas plant: "we continue to see more of these opportunities" ¹. Comanche Peak, Vistra's nuclear plant, is contracted to deliver 1.2 gigawatts to Amazon▲+0.65% — Amazon, up 0.65 percent today from 2027 under a 20-year agreement and still has capacity to sell; whether more of it can be sold under the new governor is the cleaner test ¹⁶.

NRG is still finalizing a Texas gas plant of the same size for a hyperscaler, one of the giant cloud operators like Amazon, and reports next week; Texas regulators moved toward approving that plant's air permit in October↗ despite the governor's pause and local opposition ¹⁸.

Vistra's hedges bought its shareholders a year. The first readings on the years after arrive in pieces: NRG's hyperscaler decision next week, then any Comanche Peak contract signed under Governor Hinojosa.