Vistra's 5,500 megawatts of new gas skipped Texas. Friday's report prices them.

Vistra▼−1.03% — Vistra, down 1.03 percent today closed its $4 billion purchase of Cogentrix on October 30, ten natural gas plants bought from Quantum Capital Group, a private equity firm, taking the fleet to nearly 50,000 megawatts ¹². The market read the deal as a fix for weak Texas power prices, which is why the company's 2027 profit outlook sits at the low end of its range ahead of Friday's report ².

The plant list published with the closing says otherwise: only one of the ten plants is in Texas. The rest went to PJM and ISO New England, the grid operator for the six New England states, where management said in August that prices were strengthening, while weak Texas forward prices weigh on the 2027 outlook ².

The megawatts went where capacity is scarce

The two biggest prizes are the twin Patriot and Hamilton-Liberty combined-cycle plants in Pennsylvania, 881 megawatts each, both running since 2016 ¹². PJM, the mid-Atlantic and Midwest grid, took 3,163 megawatts of the deal and ISO New England 1,750; the single Texas plant, Altura, is 583 ².

The New England third comes with a watchdog

As we reported Saturday, the Justice Department said on October 30↗ it remains concerned the combined fleet could withhold power in ISO New England even after Vistra sold its Casco Bay plant ³. Vistra and Cogentrix then chose on their own to sell the Rumford plant in Maine, the 271-megawatt unit, and the Division says it will keep monitoring that sale; FERC approved the deal without conditions ³. Nothing was imposed, but roughly a third of the new megawatts now operate under a regulator's eye.

Buying beats building

Vistra's chief executive Jim Burke said in August that equipment prices have doubled, if not tripled, and that a build price acceptable a year or two ago no longer is ². Plants already running skip that bill. Vistra paid about 7.25 times the plants' expected 2027 EBITDA against roughly 9 times its own multiple, and by the company's January math that implies about $550 million of 2027 EBITDA from Cogentrix ².

Where the AI power goes in the meantime

Data centers are the reason these eastern markets are tight. PJM's market monitor calls data center load growth the primary driver of record demand and high prices ⁶, and the grid's 2028-29 capacity auction↗ cleared at its $325 per megawatt-day price cap with a reserve shortfall ⁵.

Vistra's direct AI supply is nuclear: up to 1,200 megawatts from Comanche Peak for Amazon Web Services↗, first deliveries targeted in late 2027 and the full amount only by 2032 ⁴. Until Amazon's▲+4.71% — Amazon, up 4.71 percent today data center beside the plant is connected to the grid, the gas fleet carries the growth.

Friday is the test

November 6 guidance puts Cogentrix inside the numbers for the first time, against a street bar of about $2.1 billion of third-quarter EBITDA↗ ². A 2027 contribution near $550 million holds the cheap-multiple case; well below it, soft prices have already eaten the deal ².

Shares closed at $138.37 on the deal day against a street target near $205 ². The economics say Vistra bought the right scarce asset: existing capacity in markets where data centers have nowhere else to go. The risk to watch is not the Texas cycle but New England, where regulators can cap what the fleet earns, and Friday's Cogentrix number shows which story the market is pricing.