Xiaomi locked 70,000 orders for its extended-range SUV and needs about 87,800 deliveries a month in Q4

Seventy thousand orders, one midnight deadline

Xiaomi▼−1.17% — Xiaomi, down 1.17 percent today Auto said on Weibo on October 8↗ that more than 70,000 buyers locked deposits on its Sky Nomad extended-range SUVs between September 7 and October 7 ¹. Locking means a paid deposit and a finalized configuration ², and midnight on October 7 was the deadline to keep the first-month launch incentives ³. The count opened with more than 10,000 orders in the first four minutes ² and spans four trims priced from RMB 209,900 to RMB 299,900 ³. A deadline harvest is a ceiling, not a run-rate.

Real demand in a shrinking segment

September deliveries passed 40,000↗, the first month above that line and Xiaomi Auto's high for 2026, up from 30,153 in August, with more than 10,000 of them Sky Nomads ¹⁴. That put Xiaomi ahead of segment pioneer Li Auto, at 31,817 ⁴. Yet China's EREV retail sales fell 15.85% year on year to 616,000 vehicles in the first eight months, CPCA data show ¹, and the RMB 200,000 to 300,000 bracket is the most contested in the market ⁵. Xiaomi also priced its two top trims RMB 20,000 and RMB 30,000 below pre-sale levels ².

The fourth quarter needs double the record

At least 286,475 vehicles delivered through September is about 52.1% of the 550,000-unit annual target ¹⁴. The fourth quarter therefore needs roughly 87,800 deliveries a month, against the 2026 record of 40,000-plus ¹⁴.

And the print that reassured the market is the last of its kind: vice president Li Xiaoshuang has said order figures will be disclosed only at launch and at month one ¹. Through the quarter that decides the target, the leading indicator goes dark.

The money behind the print

Xiaomi (HKEX: 1810) is down 36% this year ¹⁶. As the stock slid in early October, the company bought back 4,112,000 Class B shares↗ at HK$23.98 to HK$24.26, about HK$99.2 million, in a Hong Kong exchange filing ⁶⁷. HSBC opened coverage at Buy with a HK$33.20 target while forecasting global smartphone revenue down 10% in 2026 on memory-chip costs ⁶⁷. On the cost side, media reports point to range extenders from Harbin Dongan, a Changan unit, at about US$1,100 each ⁶.

The number that decides it

The checkable number is deliveries, not orders. October's print lands at month end, with no order updates in between ¹. Whether management defends or walks back the 550,000 target at the third-quarter report is the decision that moves the stock. Until then, the order book is silent by policy.