A Sandisk SD card lists at 6,500 pesos, nine times its 2023 price, as Nanya posts an 85.7% margin
Nanya's record quarter came from rolling off cheap DRAM contracts, and the bill has already reached the shelf, where one SD card lists at more than nine times its 2023 price. Sandisk's October 29 report prices the risk.
Vincent Jiang · 4 min read
One SD card now lists at nine times its 2023 price
A 64GB Sandisk−6.89% — Sandisk, down 6.89 percent today Extreme Pro SD card sold for under 700 Philippine pesos in 2023 1. The same card, identical specs, now lists at 6,500 pesos on Sandisk's own Philippine store, which still runs an older listing near 2,000 pesos 1. Two camera retailers sit between the poles, at 2,375 and 2,675 pesos 1. The cheap listing shows thin stock, which suggests the old batch is being run down before a pricier one arrives 1.
One 64GB card, five prices: Sandisk's new official listing is more than triple its old one
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 2023 street price (estimate) | ₱700 |
| Official store, old listing (estimate) | ₱2,000 |
| Camera Commons | ₱2,375 |
| Henry's Cameras | ₱2,675 |
| Official store, new listing | ₱6,500 |
Cheap contracts expired and Nanya's margin jumped six points
The other end of the chain reported on October 12 23. Nanya Technology−0.94% — Nanya Technology, down 0.94 percent today posted record third-quarter results: revenue of NT$133.65 billion, up 61.9% from the second quarter 34, and gross margin of 85.7%, against 79.5% three months earlier 23. September revenue alone was up 576.62% year over year 4. The mechanism sits in the disclosure: cheap long-term contracts expired, and DRAM average selling prices rose more than 60% sequentially 2. Institutional estimates put third-quarter shipments up only about 5% and prices up about 50%, so price, not volume, carried the quarter 4.
The link between the two is inference, not citation
No source fetched for this story connects them: Nanya's margin comes from DRAM contracts, the card stores NAND flash, and the two markets price separately 25. Reading both as one AI-driven shortage running from contract renewals to the retail shelf is this piece's read, held as an inference. The provable version is narrower: NAND wafer prices have reached historical highs that retail channels increasingly cannot absorb 5, in the same quarter the 6,500-peso listing appeared 1.
The fourth quarter is already 60% sold at higher prices
More than 60% of Nanya's fourth-quarter supply is already under contract, at prices expected to rise about 10% again, and the company can meet only 50% to 60% of customer demand, with some large customers unable to secure allocations 34. TrendForce sees conventional DRAM contract prices up another 10 to 15% this quarter, and NAND contract prices up 15 to 20% 45.
Sandisk's own guide already flattens
Sandisk's July quarter carried the same signature: revenue up 51% sequentially to $8.97 billion, about two-thirds of the gain from higher prices, with gross margin climbing from 50.9% to 84.6% in two quarters 6. The shares have since fallen 8% in three sessions 7. The guide for the quarter it reports on October 29 holds margin flat, at 83% to 85% 68. The last downturn explains the nerves: in fiscal 2023 revenue fell 38% and gross margin went from 33.3% to 7.1%, below zero within two quarters of prices turning 6.
Sandisk's gross margin round trip: minus 12.3% at the 2023 trough to 84.6%, and the new guide is flat
- Gross margin
- Estimate
Data
| Gross margin | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | -12.3% |
| Q4 '23 | 9.7% |
| Q1 '24 | 27.2% |
| Q2 '24 | 36.1% |
| Q3 '24 | 38.6% |
| Q4 '24 | 32.3% |
| Q1 '25 | 22.5% |
| Q2 '25 | 26.2% |
| Q3 '25 | 29.8% |
| Q4 '25 | 50.9% |
| Q1 '26 | 78.4% |
| Q2 '26 | 84.6% |
| Q1 '27e (estimate) | 84% (83–85%) |
Sellside targets sit far above the tape
Consensus on Sandisk stood at $2,113.92 against a $1,709.88 price on October 5; the shares were near $1,640 by October 12, so the slide has only widened the gap 96. Rosenblatt holds $2,400 and Bernstein $3,000 after a 628% year-to-date run 910. Daiwa, the Japanese brokerage, lifted Nanya to NT$700 from NT$650 on October 8, citing rising DRAM prices and expected DDR4 scarcity; the stock trades at NT$527, near the top of a 52-week range of NT$85 to NT$569 3. The protections are real, including price floors under $93.9 billion of contracted Sandisk revenue 610. No downturn has tested those floors yet 6.
The run ends with new supply or with buyers who stop paying
CXMT, China's ChangXin Memory Technologies, has moved from consumer memory toward servers and plans DDR5 RDIMMs, the registered modules servers use, by year-end on its 4F² process, a smaller cell that lifts density 30–50% in the same area 1112. It already ranks fourth in global DRAM revenue at 9.5% share, behind Samsung, SK hynix−4.40% — SK hynix, down 4.40 percent today and Micron−4.35% — Micron, down 4.35 percent today 11. Two gauges now matter: whether pricing still adds to Sandisk's sequential growth on October 29 6, and whether the 6,500-peso card still moves 1. If buyers stop paying before CXMT's modules ship in volume, the cycle will have ended on demand rather than supply.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
