Apollo Global Management's economist grades AI zero outside tech; Apollo is named in Nvidia's $500 billion

Zero payoff, in three flat lines

Torsten Slok, chief economist at the investment firm Apollo Global Management▼−1.74% — Apollo Global Management, down 1.74 percent today, graded the AI boom in a October 24 note↗: the technology "has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech." ¹² Revenue per employee at the Magnificent Seven, the largest US tech stocks, climbed from about $550,000 in 2022 to nearly $800,000, while the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 have sat near $550,000 for seven years. ²

Margins outside tech sit near 10%, against almost 30%, with no lift in productivity growth. ³ Even the spending is concentrated: 99.5% of model-inference spending comes from the top 10% of firms. ³ "The AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7," Slok wrote. ³

The financier shares the letterhead

The awkward part is Apollo's other line of work. The research firm IO Fund names Apollo, alongside BlackRock▼−1.69% — BlackRock, down 1.69 percent today, Blackstone▼−0.97% — Blackstone, down 0.97 percent today, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs▼−1.40% — Goldman Sachs, down 1.40 percent today and KKR, in preliminary agreements↗ to channel more than $500 billion of third-party capital into Nvidia's▼−0.54% — Nvidia, down 0.54 percent today chip ecosystem. ⁴ One desk at the firm measures AI demand; its deal desks finance the supply.

That supply is running at record speed: Morgan Stanley▼−2.32% — Morgan Stanley, down 2.32 percent today counts $466 billion of AI-related debt issued through September, up from $101 billion a year earlier, and Goldman Sachs counts $489 billion by late July. ⁴ Whether the two sides of the house compare notes is not in the public record.

Who pays if the zero holds

The research firm Gartner▼−1.77% — Gartner, down 1.77 percent today totals the same gap from above: data-center owners need $8.5 trillion of revenue through 2030 to justify the buildout, against the $3.6 trillion it expects to flow back, a $4.9 trillion gap↗, with more than $3.5 trillion of spending facing write-down. ⁵¹

CoreWeave▼−2.97% — CoreWeave, down 2.97 percent today, the GPU cloud whose bonds already price a near 63% chance of default within five years, marks the bottom of the chain. ⁶ Its quarterly revenue quadrupled in eight quarters, while the operating income it filed across those quarters sums to about negative $10 million. ⁷ Third-quarter guidance puts interest expense at $860 million to $940 million against $200 million to $260 million of adjusted operating income. ⁸

Meta▼−1.36% — Meta, down 1.36 percent today raised the floor of its 2026 capex plan to $135 billion to $145 billion, posted negative $2.12 billion of free cash flow↗, and its five-year default swaps hit a record; the stock fell nearly 7%. ⁹

Demand is real, and so is the due date

The doubling-down camp has numbers too: a $104 billion backlog at CoreWeave, prices up about 25% in July with near-term capacity sold out, and $127 billion of Nvidia free cash flow in the year through July. ⁸⁴ Slok leaves his own door open: can mainstream corporate America "turn increasingly cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and higher profit margins"? "That may be harder than it sounds," he added. ²

This week brings Google, Microsoft▲+0.64% — Microsoft, up 0.64 percent today and Amazon▼−0.72% — Amazon, down 0.72 percent today results plus a Federal Reserve meeting, and CoreWeave reports on November 12. ⁴⁸ If interest lands at the high end of that guide, the zero gets expensive.