AppLovin reports November 4 with 53% growth and a securities suit at its back, Unity prints Thursday
AppLovin prints Q3 on November 4 and Unity the next morning, 24 hours that test whether the AI ad engine's 53% growth is real, or leaking to the rival it is suing.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
AppLovin+3.63% — AppLovin, up 3.63 percent today reports third-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, November 4 23. Twenty-four hours later, Unity Software+7.77% — Unity Software, up 7.77 percent today reports its own quarter 3. The two rivals in AI-powered mobile advertising are meeting this week in the market and in court, and the numbers AppLovin puts up will be read as a verdict on whether its Axon+1.10% — Axon, up 1.10 percent today ad engine still deserves its premium.
The stakes: a growth machine priced for perfection
AppLovin built its business on Axon, an AI system that decides which ads to show and at what price. Second-quarter revenue hit $1.92 billion, up 53% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA up 58% to $1.61 billion, an 84% margin 12. Management guided Q3 revenue to $2.055–2.085 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.71–1.74 billion 2. Growth has more than doubled revenue in two years, from $835 million in the third quarter of 2024 to $1.92 billion last quarter 5.
AppLovin revenue has more than doubled in eight quarters, and EBITDA has kept pace
- Revenue
- Adjusted EBITDA
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | Adjusted EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | 0.84B | 0.64B |
| Q4 '24 | 1B | 0.76B |
| Q1 '25 | 1.16B | 0.78B |
| Q2 '25 | 1.26B | 1.03B |
| Q3 '25 | 1.41B | 1.11B |
| Q4 '25 | 1.66B | 1.34B |
| Q1 '26 | 1.84B | 1.52B |
| Q2 '26 | 1.92B | 1.59B |
| Q3 '26 guide (estimate) | 2.07B (2.055–2.085B) | 1.73B (1.71–1.74B) |
The complication: a lawsuit says the model story was oversold
On September 16, shareholder Stephen Talbot filed a proposed securities class action in the Northern District of California, naming AppLovin, CEO Adam Foroughi and CFO Matthew Stumpf 1. It alleges the company misrepresented how steadily its ad models were advancing and hid development setbacks in a planned generative AI video feature. The class period runs February 12 through August 5, 2026 1.
The allegations have not been established in court, but the November 16 lead-plaintiff deadline is a fixed date that keeps the legal pressure on the calendar regardless 1. On the August 5 call itself, Foroughi conceded: "Our pace of meaningful model improvement was lighter than normal during the quarter" 1.
The receipts: sentiment at 2022 lows while the guide rises
BTIG, which keeps Buy ratings on both companies ($396 on AppLovin, $53 on Unity), reports investor sentiment on AppLovin has fallen to levels last seen in 2022 and 2023 on competition and take-rate concerns 3. Its checks suggest gaming share held steady, but Unity has been reinvesting take-rate gains into spend and share of voice 3. Wedbush cut its target to $560 from $610 while keeping Outperform 2. The stock closed October 29 at $228.50, down 10.36% 4.
Even after cuts, analysts' targets sit far above the $228.50 close
- Oct 29 close
- Price target
Data
| Oct 29 close | Price target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG Buy | 228.5 | 396.0 | +73.3% |
| Wedbush Outperform | 228.5 | 560.0 | +145.1% |
The counterpoint: the rival also has to prove it
Unity reports Thursday morning with strong channel checks behind it, but BTIG notes only 25% of developers had adopted its D28 campaigns, ad campaigns that pay off based on how many users are still active 28 days after installing, as of the last call 3. Q4 guidance is the open question 3.
AppLovin sued Unity on October 2 over alleged unauthorized collection of MAX auction data 46; a San Francisco court declined to restrain Unity's Ad Quality SDK, leaving the uncertainty in place 7. Neither side has landed a clean blow. Both must show it in revenue.
What to watch
Wednesday's print answers one question: does 53% growth survive a class action, a courtroom loss and a rising rival 1? Thursday's answer is whether the growth is leaking to Unity. November 16 closes the lead-plaintiff window 1.
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