Broadcom names MediaTek as Alphabet's TPU 8t partner, but skeptics say it gets the cheaper die
Broadcom's earnings call put MediaTek inside Alphabet's TPU program for the first time, but the disclosure cuts both ways: MediaTek gets the training chip Alphabet is partly insourcing, Broadcom keeps the inference chip where demand compounds fastest. Two earnings prints this week price the difference.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Broadcom+4.23% — Broadcom, up 4.23 percent today put MediaTek's−1.25% — MediaTek, down 1.25 percent today name in the record this quarter. On its latest earnings call, Broadcom said MediaTek is Alphabet's+1.48% — Alphabet, up 1.48 percent today development partner for the training-optimized TPU 8t, while Broadcom keeps the inference-optimized TPU 8i 1. That single disclosure splits the bulls from the skeptics ahead of two prints this week: Alphabet reports October 28, MediaTek reports October 29, MediaTek's first quarter with a data-center AI line on the page 2.
The bulls count the pie, the skeptics count the slices
The bull math: Piper Sandler projects TPU shipments tripling from 2.85 million units in 2025 to 4.5 million in 2026 and 8.8 million in 2027 1. Counterpoint has MediaTek's share of custom-chip design work rising from 14% in 2027 to 26% in 2028, with the market tripling overall 1. A 15% bounty of Google's training chip, on a tripling unit base, is a real business 1.
Macquarie sees Broadcom's Alphabet TPU share falling from 95% to 65% by 2028
- Broadcom share of Alphabet TPU program (Macquarie est.)
- Estimate
Data
| Broadcom share of Alphabet TPU program (Macquarie est.) | |
|---|---|
| 2026 (estimate) | 95% |
| 2027 (estimate) | 80% |
| 2028 (estimate) | 65% |
The skeptic math: Counterpoint believes Alphabet is bringing compute-die design and high-bandwidth memory buying in-house for the 8t, leaving MediaTek the input/output die, the cheaper half of the package 1. Broadcom keeps the inference chip where McKinsey sees demand compounding at 35% a year through 2030 against 22% for training 1. Macquarie has Broadcom's share of the Alphabet program easing from 95% in 2026 to 65% in 2028, a smaller slice of a bigger pie, but the richer slice 1.
What the AI line is worth today
MediaTek's third-quarter revenue hit a record TWD 168.06 billion, up 10.43% sequentially and above guidance of TWD 152.2 to 159.8 billion 3. Nine-month revenue: TWD 469.39 billion, up just 5.30% on the year 2. The AI line, above $2 billion for full-year 2026 with the first data-center accelerator entering mass production this quarter, is a rounding error against that 3. Management raised its 2027 data-center market target to 15% to 20% of an $80 billion market, and Nvidia+0.97% — Nvidia, up 0.97 percent today put $3.5 billion of convertible bonds into the company on August 31 78.
TPU shipments projected to triple to 8.8 million units by 2027
- TPU shipments (Piper Sandler est.)
- Estimate
Data
| TPU shipments (Piper Sandler est.) | |
|---|---|
| 2025 (estimate) | 2.85M units |
| 2026 (estimate) | 4.5M units |
| 2027 (estimate) | 8.8M units |
Against that, the shares closed at TWD 4,010 on October 22, 26.8% below their TWD 5,480 high, with 27 analysts averaging a TWD 6,032.85 target and DBS at Buy, TWD 6,200 2. Alphabet's October 28 call, with its $514 billion cloud backlog that management says now includes TPU system sales, sets the tone a day earlier 4. The phone-chip discount versus the AI re-rating gets its first real test this week.
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