Monolithic Power is 32% below its high before October 29 earnings, with a fraud suit and Vicor's import bid
The AI power-chip maker reports October 29 with a securities-fraud suit a federal judge has twice refused to dismiss and an ITC probe seeking to bar its AI-server power modules from US import. Consensus still expects its data-center segment to more than double.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Monolithic Power Systems+2.18% — Monolithic Power Systems, up 2.18 percent today, the Kirkland, Washington chipmaker whose power modules feed AI data centers, opened Tuesday at $1,167.27, 32% below its 52-week high of $1,714.09 1. Third-quarter results land after the close on Thursday, October 29, and consensus expects $1.16 billion of revenue, up 57% from $737.2 million a year ago 2. On Reddit's+0.43% — Reddit, up 0.43 percent today ValueInvesting forum, one holder wrote: "Almost feels like they are preparing to deliver a negative earnings report so this pre fall softens the blow on what is to come" 3.
The fraud suit a federal judge won't kill
The suit, which names the company, its chief executive and its former chief financial officer, alleges Monolithic Power misled investors from February to November 2024 about the quality of its power-management chips and its key customer Nvidia+0.93% — Nvidia, up 0.93 percent today, while insiders sold more than $160 million of stock 4.
On May 6, US District Judge James L 4. Robart held that the complaint sufficiently alleged intent to deceive or deliberate recklessness; on October 22 he again refused to dismiss it 4. A day later Schubert Jonckheer & Kolbe renewed its investor notice, and by Monday, October 26, Rosen Law Firm had opened a fiduciary-duty probe of the board 45.
Vicor wants the modules stopped at the border
The second front aims at the same franchise. Vicor+7.50% — Vicor, up 7.50 percent today, the Andover, Massachusetts power-module maker, filed a section 337 complaint on September 9 claiming that vertical power delivery systems imported for AI accelerators infringe its US Patent 10,903,734, and asked the US International Trade Commission for a limited exclusion order, which bars the accused products from import 6.
The Commission instituted the investigation on October 9, naming Monolithic Power and its Chengdu and Shanghai affiliates among 20 respondents across nine groups, alongside Foxconn+1.02% — Foxconn, up 1.02 percent today, Quanta and Flex+6.10% — Flex, up 6.10 percent today, as The Inference covered when the complaint landed 67. Institution is not a finding of violation, and respondents that do not answer within 20 days of service risk the allegations being taken as true 6.
Vicor is monetizing the patents fast: royalty revenue hit $66.6 million last quarter, roughly triple the $21.7 million a year earlier, two hyperscalers have sought license terms, and chief executive Patrizio Vinciarelli says the probe is "prompting inquiries about licenses" 89.
What the bulls are standing on
The bull case is not imaginary. Second-quarter revenue was $980.64 million, up 47.6%, and earnings of $6.50 a share beat estimates by $0.63 1. Revenue has doubled since 2023 and is still accelerating 10. Thirteen analysts rate the stock a Buy, three a Hold, and the average target of $1,692.64 sits 45% above Tuesday's open 1.
Quarterly revenue has doubled since 2023 and the climb keeps steepening
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $474.87M |
| Q4 '23 | $454.01M |
| Q1 '24 | $457.89M |
| Q2 '24 | $507.43M |
| Q3 '24 | $620.12M |
| Q4 '24 | $621.67M |
| Q1 '25 | $637.55M |
| Q2 '25 | $664.57M |
| Q3 '25 | $737.18M |
| Q4 '25 | $751.16M |
| Q1 '26 | $804.19M |
| Q2 '26 | $980.64M |
Part of the fall was sector-wide. On October 22, the day the ruling landed, MPWR dropped 8.3% in a semiconductor rout after equipment maker Lam Research+1.45% — Lam Research, up 1.45 percent today warned that parts shortages and cleanroom constraints would cap output into 2027; AMD+5.29% — AMD, up 5.29 percent today fell 7.7% and MACOM 13.9% 11. Recent insider selling is a rounding error against the class period: 130 shares worth $175,397 in 90 days 1.
Thursday's number picks the story
The tell is one line: Enterprise Data, the segment selling power modules into AI data centers. Consensus has it at $457.36 million against $191.48 million a year ago 2. Clear that number and the drawdown reads as sector beta plus legal risk on a franchise still doubling. Miss it and the plaintiffs' map, an Nvidia socket lost to rivals, becomes the better guide, with Vicor's import-bar request still live behind it.
Consensus has Enterprise Data more than doubling; consumer is the only line shrinking
- Q3 2025 actual
- Q3 2026 consensus
Data
| Q3 2025 actual | Q3 2026 consensus | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Data | $191.48M | $457.36M | +138.9% |
| Storage & Computing | $186.57M | $210.55M | +12.9% |
| Automotive | $151.54M | $172.42M | +13.8% |
| Communications | $79.87M | $146.51M | +83.4% |
| Consumer | $72.40M | $61.65M | -14.8% |
| Industrial | $55.32M | $56.61M | +2.3% |
The socket claim is alleged, not established, and Thursday after the close is the first hard count. Clear $457 million and the lawsuits are an overhang. Miss it and they are a map.
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