C3.ai founder Thomas Siebel sold $5.15 million of stock a day after the upgrade, under a plan set in 2024
One trading day after Northland's upgrade lifted C3.ai as much as 10%, a preset trading plan exercised founder-CEO Thomas Siebel's options and sold $5.15 million of stock. By Friday the shares had fallen 8.9% and options traders had bought 199,761 calls, 403% above normal.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Northland Capital's Michael Latimore upgraded C3.ai+0.75% — C3.ai, up 0.75 percent today to Outperform on October 12 and raised his target to $16 from $10, betting that C3 Code, which builds AI applications from plain-English instructions, restarts growth 12. The stock rose 10% that morning and closed up more than 6% 13.
The next trading day, founder, chairman and chief executive Thomas M. Siebel exercised 435,363 options at $3.90 and sold every resulting share for about $5.15 million, a weighted average of $11.8179 4. The sale ran under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, a selling schedule fixed in advance; this one is dated September 20, 2024 45.
The October sale was the third batch since August
On August 11 the same plan sold 453,314 shares at $10.51 for $4.76 million 6. On September 15 and 16 it sold 444,248 at $10.77 for $4.8 million 7. October's batch filled between $11.565 and $12.0123 4, and each exercise-and-sell left Siebel with 722,362 directly held shares 47.
Three batches, $14.7 million: the plan's sales grew each month
Data
| Sale proceeds | |
|---|---|
| Aug 11 | $4.76M |
| Sep 15-16 | $4.8M |
| Oct 13 | $5.15M |
MarketBeat counts $17.1 million of insider sales across 1.57 million shares last quarter, mostly one man's option plan plus tax-withholding sales such as finance chief Hitesh Lath's 21,077 shares 6. Insiders still own 19.8% of the company 6.
The business underneath has halved
Quarterly revenue has halved from its $108.7M peak
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $73.23M |
| Q4 '23 | $78.4M |
| Q1 '24 | $86.59M |
| Q2 '24 | $87.21M |
| Q3 '24 | $94.34M |
| Q4 '24 | $98.78M |
| Q1 '25 | $108.72M |
| Q2 '25 | $70.26M |
| Q3 '25 | $75.15M |
| Q4 '25 | $53.26M |
| Q1 '26 | $51.6M |
| Q2 '26 | $52.38M |
Quarterly revenue peaked at $108.7 million in the quarter ended April 2025 and was $52.4 million in the July quarter, down about 25% year on year, against a $92.8 million net loss under GAAP, the accounting basis that counts every cost 89. Fiscal 2026 as a whole fell 35% to $250.3 million, at a $470.3 million loss 810.
The Motley Fool traces the slide to Siebel's own medical leave, which began in September 2025 and ended with his return this spring 10. The shoots are real: bookings rose 73% from the prior quarter and cash stood at $651.1 million 8.
The plan predates the story, and June cuts the other way
The plan's date matters more than its size. Fixed on September 20, 2024, it predates the C3 Agentic AI Platform, the medical leave and the upgrade, so it cannot have been set in response to any of them 410.
June points the other way. The June 3 year-end release counted $673 million of cash, including Siebel's purchase of 6.17 million shares at $11.16, a check for roughly $69 million 8. About $14.7 million has left through the plan this year 674; roughly $69 million went in 8. Net, the founder bought.
Call buyers against a $9.36 Street
One $16 target against a $9.36 Street
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Northland target, 12 Oct | $16 |
| Close, 16 Oct | $11.32 |
| Street average target | $9.36 |
Friday showed both camps trading. The shares fell 8.9% to $11.32 116 while options traders bought 199,761 calls, about 403% above the usual 39,728 contracts 6. No filing names whoever took the other side. The Street's average target is $9.36, seven of thirteen analysts at Sell 6, and Northland's $16 sat a third above the Street's highest in late September 3.
The stakes split along that gap. If C3 Code bookings turn into revenue, the call buyers collect and $16 becomes the number to beat; if revenue stalls near $52 million again, the Street's $9.36 looks closer to right, and the losers are the traders who bought calls on a falling stock.
The first check is the October quarter, guided to $51 million to $55 million 38; the real test is the January quarter, when the year-on-year comparisons finally ease 3. Until it reports, Friday's 8.9% fall is the market's only vote on record, and it went against the call buyers 11. Siebel, with options to November 27, 2028, can wait for his answer 4.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
