Carrier Global's data-center orders passed $3 billion, and it expects 50% sales growth in 2027

Carrier Global▼−0.15% — Carrier Global, down 0.15 percent today chairman and chief executive David Gitlin and chief financial officer Patrick Goris took the stage at Baird's Global Industrial Conference on November 11 ⁶. The growth number that has traveled from the session: data-center sales, roughly doubled to about $2 billion this year, are expected to grow about 50% in 2027, according to the account that has circulated ¹. Gitlin set that floor on September 16, at a Morgan Stanley▼−0.24% — Morgan Stanley, down 0.24 percent today conference, committing to at least $3 billion of data-center revenue in 2027 ¹.

The Investing.com transcript of the session↗ sits behind a login wall, and a search of coverage on November 12 found no other account, so the 50% figure rests on one report ³. The base it grows from is on the record: on the October 29 earnings call↗, Carrier reported third-quarter data-center sales above $550 million and reaffirmed $2 billion for the year ¹⁴.

Orders already outrun a full year of shipments

Sales count what has shipped; orders count what customers have committed to buy ¹. Through September, data-center orders passed $3 billion, up nearly 350% year over year, with third-quarter orders alone up about 300% ¹⁴. Backlog across all of Carrier, not data center alone, reached a record above $8.5 billion, a figure that excludes the minimums in an October agreement worth more than $3 billion with a hyperscaler, one of the giant cloud operators that build and run data centers at scale ¹⁴.

For scale, data center is about one dollar in twelve at a company guiding to nearly $24 billion of 2026 revenue, on $6.26 billion booked in the third quarter ⁴⁷.

Converting the orders doubles the interest bill

Bookings become revenue only through factories and working capital, and both carry a price now. On November 4 Carrier closed $1.5 billion of senior notes, $750 million at 5.000% due 2029 and $750 million at 5.350% due 2033, with proceeds to repay at maturity the 2.493% notes due February 15, 2027 ²⁵. A point of coupon on $1.5 billion is $15 million a year, and the blended 5.175% is more than double the 2.493% coupon going out ².

The capacity to convert is under construction: a Fort Worth plant meant to more than double Americas capacity, add about 1,500 jobs and begin deliveries in late summer 2027 ⁴. The doubling Carrier booked this year rode on money borrowed at 2.493%; the growth guided for 2027 is to be carried at a blended 5.175% ².

One customer and one maturity decide it

The bull case is contractual: minimum-volume commitments inside the hyperscaler agreement, a record backlog, and a mix Gitlin calls "margin accretive to our applied business," his term for the engineered commercial-equipment side ⁴.

The bear case is concentration, cost and the calendar. Shipments run at a fraction of bookings until Fort Worth opens late in 2027 ⁴. One hyperscaler agreement worth more than $3 billion ties a slice of the business to a single customer's capital spending ¹⁴. And the quarter that set the backlog record also carried a $3.1 billion goodwill impairment on the European climate business and a $3.16-a-share GAAP loss, with no formal 2027 guidance beyond a target of double-digit EPS growth ⁴⁷.

Two readings decide it: fourth-quarter data-center bookings against the backlog, and the February maturity rolling onto 5% money ²⁵.