Nebius beat Q3 with $980.8 million revenue, then sank as much as 16% on a $40-45 billion 2027 capex guide
Adjusted EBITDA swung to a $465.8 million profit on revenue up 571%, yet the shares sank as much as 16% after a first 2027 outlook put capex at $40–45 billion. Customer prepayments and debt fund the $7.3 billion quarterly build; shareholders carry the risk.
Vincent Jiangtwo-minute read
Nebius−18.23% — Nebius, down 18.23 percent today Group, the Amsterdam-based AI cloud that rents out data centers packed with Nvidia−5.64% — Nvidia, down 5.64 percent today GPUs, reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million on November 12, up 571% from $146.1 million a year earlier and above the $907.5 million analysts expected 123. Adjusted EBITDA swung to $465.8 million from a $5.2 million loss, a 47.5% margin, and the GAAP net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $37.5 million, or 13 cents a share 13.
The shares still sank as much as 16% on Thursday, a day after closing up 15.4% at $154.69 as rival AI-cloud operator CoreWeave's−7.91% — CoreWeave, down 7.91 percent today beat lifted the whole sector 356.
Why a clean beat sold off
The release carried its own discounts. Management called about $325 million of the quarter's revenue non-recurring, the first phase of a new asset-light partnership 4. Full-year revenue now lands at the low end of the $3.0–3.4 billion range, against FactSet's+0.60% — FactSet, up 0.60 percent today $3.35 billion, after third-party data-center deliveries slipped; New Jersey capacity moved to the second quarter of 2027 34.
Capex did the rest. Guidance for 2026 rose to $27 billion from $20–25 billion, and a first 2027 outlook set spending at $40–45 billion, far above FactSet's $28.77 billion consensus, on $12–13 billion of revenue with pre-tax breakeven targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027 34.
The first 2027 capex guide lands $11–16 billion above the consensus
- Capex plan
- Estimate
Data
| Capex plan | |
|---|---|
| 2026 plan, prior (estimate) | $22.5B ($20–25B) |
| 2026 plan, raised (estimate) | $27B |
| 2027 first outlook (estimate) | $42.5B ($40–45B) |
The build still eats the cash
Nebius capex outran revenue in every quarter since late 2024, seven to one in Q3 2026
Q3 2026 capex of $7.3B was 7.4 times revenue, the widest gap yet
- Capex
- Revenue
Data
| Capex | Revenue | |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | $0.42B | $0.04B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.54B | $0.05B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.51B | $0.11B |
| Q3 '25 | $0.96B | $0.15B |
| Q4 '25 | $2.06B | $0.23B |
| Q1 '26 | $2.47B | $0.4B |
| Q2 '26 | $5.65B | $0.58B |
| Q3 '26 | $7.3B | $0.98B |
Capex hit a record $7.3 billion in the quarter, while operating cash flow ran at negative $273 million, its first negative quarter of 2026 after $4.23 billion of inflows over nine months 1. Prepayments added $3.43 billion of deferred revenue; receivables swallowed $3.76 billion 1.
The bridge is borrowing. Nebius raised $5.75 billion of debt financing in the quarter 3, and the balance sheet now carries $14.2 billion of debt, $187.5 million current plus $14.0 billion non-current, against $4.1 billion at year-end 1.
Founder and chief executive Arkady Volozh said prepayments on Q3 agreements covered more than 100% of the associated capex 4. The quarter ended with $7.4 billion of cash and equivalents 1.
A split sell-side, and a fourth quarter to settle it
The sell-side straddles the $154.69 close: Rosenblatt initiated at Buy with a $304 target, Citigroup−0.17% — Citigroup, down 0.17 percent today held Buy at $265 after cutting from $324, and Piper Sandler kept its Neutral rating and cut its target to $185 2.
CoreWeave printed $3.66 billion of revenue and a $132.5 billion backlog 5. The next reading is fourth-quarter revenue: the low end of the 2026 guide implies about $1.04 billion, $3.0 billion minus the $1.96 billion already booked, against a $1.48 billion consensus 17. The quarter will show whether prepayments keep arriving faster than the machines.
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