Cerebras needs a $269 million Q4 to hold its $880 million 2026 guide
The Q3 guide implies 2.4% growth and a wider core loss, and holding the $880–890M year takes a 25% jump in Q4. Tonight's 5 p.m. ET call, the first print since the lock-up opened, decides whether the funds that bought in June or the shorts are right.
Vincent Jiangfour-minute read
Cerebras Systems−1.04% — Cerebras Systems, down 1.04 percent today (Nasdaq: CBRS), the wafer-scale AI chipmaker, reports third-quarter results after the US close tonight, November 12, with the call at 5 p.m 1. ET 1. The stock goes in at $93.66, down 3.1% on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley−0.24% — Morgan Stanley, down 0.24 percent today cut its target to $178 from $279 while keeping an Overweight rating, and about 49% below the $185 price of its May 14 listing 2.
The main lock-up ended on November 9 with up to 171.1 million shares in play over the full release schedule, a schedule The Inference laid out this week, and the stock has already touched a 52-week low of $77.84 2. Around it, Nvidia−5.64% — Nvidia, down 5.64 percent today fell more than 7% overnight on reports about chief executive Jensen Huang, and traders are treating Cerebras as the sector's demand tell before Nvidia reports on November 17 3.
The guide back-loads the year
The company pointed Q3 core revenue, its non-GAAP measure, at $214–216 million, just 2.4% above Q2's $209.9 million, with core gross margin of 38–40% against 40.6% in Q2 and a core operating loss widening to about $51.6 million from $33.6 million 4. Margin is the number that has bitten before: the stock fell 14% in June on a full-year margin forecast 2.
The data vendors cannot even agree on consensus. Zacks carries revenue of $215.8 million and a 13-cent loss, while Koyfin, quoted by Stocktwits, carries $274.9 million and a 23-cent loss 23. The company's own guide is the anchor, and it leaves the hard part for later. Holding the $880–890 million full-year outlook, raised from $855–865 million in August, takes about $269 million of core revenue in Q4, 25% above the Q3 midpoint 4. Cerebras has cleared its own bar before: Q2 landed 8.2% above guide 4.
Q4 must run 25% above the Q3 guide to hold the $880M year
- Core revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Core revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $191.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $209.9M |
| Q3 guide (estimate) | $215M |
| Q4 implied (estimate) | $268.8M |
Ten funds bought in June and are down 58%
Ten funds reported new stakes at June 30 5. Brad Gerstner's Altimeter Capital held 7.23 million shares worth $1.60 billion, its second-largest position behind Nvidia; Coatue, Tiger Global and Cathie Wood's ARK held about $2.4 billion between them 5. The stock has fallen 58% since that filing date, and the funds' September 30 filings are due by November 16 5.
Altimeter and Coatue each put about $1.6 billion on Cerebras at June 30
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Altimeter | $1.6B |
| Coatue | $1.55B |
| Tiger Global | $0.66B |
| ARK | $0.17B |
Insiders sold, and Culper went after the depreciation
Against them sit the sellers. Insiders sold 1,924,452 shares worth about $394.6 million over the past 90 days, per MarketBeat 2, and short seller Culper Research's October 28 report knocked the stock down 10% 6. Culper's sharpest point comes from Cerebras's own paperwork: system useful lives went from 1.5–3 years in late-2025 draft IPO filings to 3–5 years four months later, unexplained, and longer lives mean lower depreciation and fatter margins 6. A widely shared post puts short interest at 21.33 million shares, 20.62% of the float; no exchange print in hand confirms that figure 7.
Backlog bigger than the company
The bull case sits in the filings: $25.4 billion of remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognized, at June 30, against a $22.25 billion market value, plus $8.6 billion of cash and short-term investments 45. The load-bearing customer is OpenAI$1.18T — OpenAI, private, latest valuation $1.18T, contracted for 750 megawatts of inference capacity through 2028 in a deal worth more than $20 billion and backed by a $1.0 billion working-capital loan 58. Cash settled the survival question months ago; tonight is about conversion speed.
Analyst targets have barely moved: a $266 mean with a $170 floor, while the stock lost two-thirds of its value, which says the targets price 2027, when consensus expects $2.96 billion of revenue 5.
Four lines to watch
Core gross margin against the 38–40% guide, where the depreciation question also lives 46. The full-year floor, held or raised 4. The backlog update, the cleanest read on OpenAI converting 4. And whether chief financial officer Bob Komin repeats the plan to more than triple revenue in 2027 5. Reference levels after the print run about $110 up and $78 down, near 17% either way 2. Then the ledger closes: 13F filings on November 16, Nvidia on the 17th 2.
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