Core Scientific booked the revenue. Its $1.8 billion run-rate sits behind a permit, a study and 2027 bonds

*Core Scientific's▲+4.48% — Core Scientific, up 4.48 percent today colocation revenue ran 14 times last year's quarter, but management named the three gates between it and the contracted money: an unfiled Texas air permit, a grid study, and project financing deferred to 2027, with January stacking the dates.*

The quarter that proves the model

Core Scientific's AI pivot now pays the bills. Colocation revenue hit $215.4 million in Q3 2026↗, up nearly 60% from $136.7 million in Q2 and 14 times the $15.0 million of a year earlier, 92% of total revenue ¹. Adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to $133.6 million at a 57% margin ¹. The headline $1.18 billion profit is a non-cash warrant mark; operating income was $72.4 million ¹. The bitcoin wind-down, reported here before earnings ⁶, leaves 32 BTC on the balance sheet ¹.

Three gates before the $1.8 billion

The contracted portfolio is 1,120 megawatts across CoreWeave▲+6.23% — CoreWeave, up 6.23 percent today, the AI cloud provider that is Core Scientific's first colocation customer, and AMD▲+10.51% — AMD, up 10.51 percent today, the chipmaker that became the second, advertised as $1.8 billion of average annual run-rate revenue and $1.6 billion of net operating income once fully delivered↗ ².

Between here and there sit three gates management put on the record: air permits for behind-the-meter generation at Pecos, Texas, not yet filed; a November study by ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, one of the last milestones before the Hunt site energizes; and project bonds for the 530-megawatt AMD buildout, under construction across five campuses, that are not expected until 2027 ². Funding the gap is roughly $650 million from warrant exercises expiring around January 2027, earmarked for AMD equity ².

The bill is coming due

Liquidity fell about $1 billion in the quarter to $1.74 billion, driven by $540 million of capex and $440 million for the Polaris acquisition ², against $4.3 billion of long-term debt and a $1.09 billion stockholders' deficit ¹. January stacks the Texas inauguration, the warrant money and the final CoreWeave megawatts on one month.

Wall Street marked it down anyway

Bernstein cut price targets on seven AI infrastructure operators↗ 35% to 54% after Gina Hinojosa, who campaigned on an immediate data-center moratorium, won the Texas governor's race, revaluing colocation at 12x forward EBITDA from 21x ³; Macquarie cut Core Scientific to $25 from $38↗ ⁴ and Craig-Hallum cited Texas permit concerns↗ ⁵.

Sullivan calls his Texas sites low-risk, a rebuttal our November 6 article examined↗: the statute he cites binds counties, not the state ⁶. GLJ Research figures roughly 13 gigawatts of Texas capacity is immediately exposed↗, and projects with power but no state environmental permits slip 12 to 18 months ⁷.

The split is clean: the equity carries the build until the gates clear. Watch the Pecos air permit filing; it is the first gate with no date on it.