CoreWeave's $104.2 billion backlog depends on 2.7 gigawatts it has not switched on
CoreWeave's $104.2 billion revenue backlog rests on 4.2 gigawatts of contracted power, of which only 1.5 gigawatts is switched on. The November earnings report will show whether the backlog is a contract or a construction schedule.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
CoreWeave's+4.82% — CoreWeave, up 4.82 percent today revenue backlog is the number bulls quote: $104.2 billion of sales contracted but not yet delivered, up 246% in a year, against $7.59 billion of trailing revenue and a $1.93 billion net loss 1. The backlog audited itself on the August 11 earnings call 1. Asked about the growth plan, management said it had contracted 4.2 gigawatts of power while running 1.5 gigawatts switched on 1. So roughly 2.7 gigawatts of the backlog is not a contract so much as a promise about a site, a substation and a local hearing 1.
CoreWeave has contracted 4.2 GW of power but switched on only 1.5 GW
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Active, end fiscal Q2 2026 | 1.5 |
| Year-end 2026 goal (estimate) | 1.85 |
| Power contracted | 4.2 |
| 2030 goal (estimate) | 8 |
Land is the input a cloud company cannot order
Those hearings are already going wrong. On the same call an analyst raised local opposition, and management answered that communities imposing moratoriums will change where CoreWeave builds, not whether, and will not touch guided numbers 1. Land is the one input a cloud company cannot order from a supplier. Meanwhile the debt that pays for the concrete is repricing: insuring CoreWeave's bonds against default costs more than 11%, and the shares are down 41% since October 6 34.
Two camps, one audit date
The camps have split cleanly. Nvidia's+2.18% — Nvidia, up 2.18 percent today Jensen Huang calls neocloud demand "off the charts" 25. Chamath Palihapitiya expects 2027 compute "bought and paid for but effectively underearning, or collecting dust," and Elon Musk, answering him, forecast "guppy-level death" for most of the sector's 200-plus companies 35. Bernstein analysts studied thousands of planned US data centers and concluded only about 35% of announced capacity gets built: "Press releases are cheap … concrete is not" 3.
Nebius+1.16% — Nebius, up 1.16 percent today and Iren, both Nvidia-backed like CoreWeave, defend demand and say customers keep coming 5. Fine. But the audit date is set. CoreWeave reports in November, and it has raised its year-end target to more than 1.85 gigawatts of active power from 1.5 at fiscal Q2's close 1. If that number comes in light, the $104.2 billion backlog is a schedule, not a contract 1. If it lands, the skeptics own a harder question. Watch the gigawatts, not the backlog.
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