Europe's politicians can block Palantir's contracts. Its taxpayers have already paid €1.4 billion

On October 14, Palantir▼−2.50% — Palantir, down 2.50 percent today, the US software company whose platforms run intelligence analysis and health data for Western governments, and the office of London mayor Sadiq Khan withdrew their claims against each other and ended a High Court fight over the £50 million, two-year Met Police analytics contract↗ the mayor's office blocked in May ¹. No damages were paid and neither side admitted liability ¹.

The Mayor's Office for Policing and Crime, which oversees the force's budget, stated the decision "was not based on Palantir's values or ethics or any wider reporting about the company," correcting an impression its own spokesman had created ¹. The contract returns to tender, with Palantir "free and welcomed" to bid, but not bound to win ².

The ledger behind the 168 P/E

The week before, an investigation led by Follow the Money with reporters in 18 countries↗ totaled what European states actually pay the company: at least €1.4 billion, across at least 11 national governments, with armed forces as clients in eight countries and national police in five ³. The UK alone has spent about £992 million since 2012, Palantir's largest market outside the United States ³. Palantir does not disclose who its European clients are, what they buy, or how dependent they are ³.

Against the growth the market is paying for, the ledger is small. At Wednesday's rate of about $1.11 to the euro ⁷, €1.4 billion is roughly $1.6 billion, about a fifth of Palantir's annualized Q2 revenue of $7.74 billion, or what the company now books in roughly ten weeks ⁶. Into the November 2 print, 25 of 34 analysts rate the stock buy or strong buy and LSEG consensus expects revenue growth above 80% ⁴, on a trailing P/E of 168 ⁵.

October moved the ledger in both directions

The eviction narrative is real but uneven. Denmark instructed its army to halt advanced talks on buying NATO's Palantir-built MAVEN system in favor of a European alternative, and France's prime minister said his domestic intelligence service will not renew its contract ³.

Yet NATO itself acquired MAVEN in March 2025, Norway extended its customs contract to 2030, and in September the presidents of Poland and Lithuania met CEO Alex Karp about a military-technology hub on NATO's eastern flank ³. The settlement proved the mechanism: a mayor or a defense ministry can pause a contract without any court ever ruling against Palantir ¹.

The biggest single test is the NHS

More than 44,000 people have filed legal objections↗ to their health data being handled by the £330 million NHS Federated Data Platform, which means NHS England must stop using objectors' data unless it can give a compelling reason to continue ⁸. Two House of Commons select committees want the government to exercise a break clause that comes into force in February 2027 ⁸⁹. The decision falls to Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government; Burnham announced in early October that he intends to replace Palantir with a home-grown alternative ³.

Freedom of information responses gathered by the campaign group Medact↗ show 16 trusts and health boards declaring they do not use the system at all, some calling it duplicative or no better than what they already run ⁹. Palantir counters that 137 trusts have reported benefits and cites 117,000 additional operations at trusts using the platform, though NHS England has caveated its own statistics, saying other variables were not controlled for ⁹.

The bull case rests on US growth; the risk to it is political timing

The counterargument is strong. Palantir's last reported quarter showed revenue of $1.94 billion, up 92.8% year over year, with US government revenue up 90% and US commercial up 149% ⁵⁶. Met Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley said the blocked system would have let the force cut 500 jobs against budget shortfalls of £100 million this year and £125 million next ². The settlement cut both ways too: the mayor's office conceded values played no part, which was the core of Palantir's case ¹.

What November 2 has to answer

Rosenblatt raised its price target to $260 on Monday, implying 31% upside, arguing Palantir is a de facto enterprise operating system with a market "more than an order of magnitude larger" than previously estimated ⁴. The Inference's earlier reporting covered the Washington side of this ledger↗; what is new is the European total, and how October stress-tested it. Watch the international government revenue line against the US-weighted growth, the Met re-tender, Burnham's call on the NHS break clause, and Denmark's MAVEN decision ⁴⁸³.

A 168 trailing P/E leaves almost no room for execution stumbles, as the Palantir-versus-RTX comparison↗ put it ⁵. That multiple assumes Europe adds growth to the book, not veto risk to it. What the ledger shows is narrower: at least €1.4 billion paid so far, the UK the largest slice, and a veto mechanism London just proved works without a court ruling against Palantir ⁵. The November 2 print is the first test of whether that tap is slowing ⁵.