FICO froze its $10 mortgage price and three top lenders signed on; the November 4 report prices the freeze
FICO froze its $10 mortgage score price and got hammered for it. Four days later, the #2 US retail lender and two others signed up, and the Nov 4 earnings report will price the trade.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Three of America's biggest mortgage lenders just put their names on the trade Wall Street called a mistake. On October 30, Fairway Home Mortgage, the second-largest retail lender in the United States, Movement Mortgage, a top-10 national retail lender, and fintech lender Rate all enrolled in FICO's new Preferred Program, pledging on the record to keep pulling FICO+0.79% — FICO, up 0.79 percent today Scores across their mortgage operations 1. It is the first take-up evidence for a pricing decision that cost the company 6.9% of its stock price in a single session 2.
The $10 toll, frozen
On October 26, FICO said it would hold its wholesale mortgage score price at $10 for lenders in the Preferred Program, with the price covering a bundle of the Classic FICO Score and the newer 10T 1. Wells Fargo−1.78% — Wells Fargo, down 1.78 percent today cut the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, warning the decision limits earnings upside; Barron's framed it as a missed chance to raise prices 2. Analysts now expect revenue growth to slow from 27% in fiscal 2026 to roughly 8% a year through fiscal 2028 3.
FICO's revenue growth peaked at 38.7% just before the price freeze
Data
| Revenue growth, year over year | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 14.1% |
| Q2 '24 | 12.3% |
| Q3 '24 | 16.4% |
| Q4 '24 | 15.2% |
| Q1 '25 | 15% |
| Q2 '25 | 19.8% |
| Q3 '25 | 13.6% |
| Q4 '25 | 16.4% |
| Q1 '26 | 38.7% |
| Q2 '26 | 25.7% |
The chart explains the downgrade. FICO's growth ran almost entirely on price: mortgage origination revenue rose 97% year over year in fiscal Q3 2026 while volumes grew only low single digits 4. A frozen price ends the easiest growth lever a business can own.
What the freeze buys
The three enrollees show what FICO gets in return. Movement was the first lender to pull FICO Score 10T, back in 2023, and enrollment migrates lenders onto the modern score inside the bundle 1.
The context is a regulator opening the gates: FHFA director Bill Pulte has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to approve VantageScore 4.0 for all lenders, and Equifax+2.90% — Equifax, up 2.90 percent today and TransUnion+1.64% — TransUnion, up 1.64 percent today price it at roughly $1, a tenth of FICO's rate 5. VantageScore says it was the sole score on more than 9% of GSE-securitized mortgages from May through August 5.
The counterpoint: a $10 score with 90% of top US lenders already using it may be worth more than a $1 score nobody has to buy twice 15. On November 4, the Q4 print prices that argument 15.
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