FICO's growth is one fee, and the FHFA put a $1 rival score on the same pricing grid

Every dollar of Fair Isaac's▼−0.76% — Fair Isaac, down 0.76 percent today recent growth traces to one fee. In the June quarter its Scores segment booked $459 million, up 41 percent, while Software grew 2 percent; inside Scores, revenue from mortgage origination checks rose 97 percent on volumes that grew low single digits ¹. Mortgage scoring is now 62 percent of Scores and roughly 43 percent of the whole company ¹².

The regulator built a $1 bridge beside the toll

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, moved twice in September. On September 3, Director Bill Pulte directed that every approved lender may use VantageScore 4.0, a rival score owned jointly by Equifax▼−0.55% — Equifax, down 0.55 percent today, Experian and TransUnion▲+0.89% — TransUnion, up 0.89 percent today ⁴. On September 28 he posted: "Fannie and Freddie are hereby moving to ONE PRICING GRID,"↗ folding VantageScore onto Classic FICO's pricing grid and erasing a 20-point penalty for choosing it ³. FICO stock fell about 17 percent on September 4 and more than 26 percent on September 29 ².

Equifax counted the switch

On its October 20 call↗, Equifax chief executive Mark Begor said about 2,000 mortgage lenders now run VantageScore in underwriting, seven times April's count, with VantageScore mortgage volume up more than 230 percent and more than 200 lenders using it exclusively ⁵. Rocket Mortgage has made it the preferred score for eligible loans ³, and it was used to securitize about 9 percent of Fannie and Freddie mortgages from May through August ⁴. Equifax holds its price at $1 through 2028 ⁵.

The same call carried the caveat: fourth-quarter guidance still assumes FICO scores on every mortgage transaction, with limited VantageScore revenue ⁵. Fair Isaac's own answer, a direct licensing program sold through resellers, is still awaiting GSE certification ¹.

The bounce and the targets point opposite ways

The week of October 12, FICO rose 16 percent to $771 with no confirmed catalyst beyond short covering and an October 6 plan to cut about 15 percent of staff at a $27 million charge ². Since September 30, the mean analyst target has fallen 18 percent to $1,032; the $490 low sits under the price ². The stock is down 50.5 percent for 2026 against a 17.1 percent S&P 500 gain, at 16x forward earnings versus a three-year average of 47x ¹².

November 4 decides whose numbers were right

Fair Isaac reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on November 4, after the close↗ ⁶, the first print covering the single grid. Management's last word on volumes, that it was not seeing loss, dates to a July 29 call↗ ¹. Equifax farms both sides either way: about 45 percent of its USIS mortgage revenue is FICO royalty pass-through at no margin, and full conversion to the score it co-owns is worth roughly $35 million of incremental margin ⁵.

Its shares rose 10.7 percent on the report↗ ⁸. The switch risk sits with FICO holders alone, and the toll's first post-grid traffic count arrives in two weeks.