Goldman recorded the fastest hedge-fund tech exit in its history, then started selling the hedge
Markets price three more Fed hikes where Goldman's economists expect one, in December; that gap decides whether the AI debt machine keeps paying the banks that built it. Goldman is hedged on both sides of the unwind. Morgan Stanley's record fee run needs the borrowing to continue.
Richard Tang · 2 min read
Hedge funds cut their technology holdings at the largest percentage decline in Goldman Sachs'+0.88% — Goldman Sachs, up 0.88 percent today prime-brokerage records, which go back to 2016, over the five sessions through October 15 1. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst week since April 2025 1. CoreWeave+1.51% — CoreWeave, up 1.51 percent today, a neocloud (an AI-focused cloud provider) that borrows to build data centers, saw its bond yields rise above 15% on debt worries 1. Nothing changed in what the models can do; what changed is the cost of the debt that builds them. This is a rate-driven repricing of a crowded trade, and the bank that measured the exit spent the same week selling the hedge for it.
The unwind is about money, not models
Markets price three more Fed hikes where Goldman's chief economist expects a single one, in December 2. Ten-year yields sit above five and a quarter percent 3. Nasdaq multiples have compressed about a fifth this year 3. When the price of the money that builds data centers rises, leveraged positions in the stocks that own the chips unwind first: fundamental long-short funds lost 2.9% in one week, losing money every day 1. Morgan Stanley's+0.87% — Morgan Stanley, up 0.87 percent today chief strategist calls this the correction's final innings and points to earnings, free cash flow and industrials as the next leaders 4 5.
The same building sold both sides
On October 16 Goldman launched its Anti-AI Replacement basket: long the companies that implement AI, from Cloudflare−1.78% — Cloudflare, down 1.78 percent today and CrowdStrike+0.08% — CrowdStrike, up 0.08 percent today to Palantir+0.04% — Palantir, up 0.04 percent today, Oracle+1.42% — Oracle, up 1.42 percent today and Microsoft−0.33% — Microsoft, down 0.33 percent today; short the workflow software AI may automate, from Monday.com and Salesforce−0.33% — Salesforce, down 0.33 percent today to DocuSign+4.68% — DocuSign, up 4.68 percent today, Accenture+1.14% — Accenture, up 1.14 percent today and ServiceNow+2.75% — ServiceNow, up 2.75 percent today 6. On October 19 its equity desk upgraded CoreWeave to Buy, cutting the price target to $106 from $139 and arguing its debt of more than $51 billion sits mostly in asset-backed loans whose cost rises only 100 to 200 basis points 7. One desk recorded the exit; another monetized the other side.
For the banks, December is the test
Morgan Stanley collected $2.3 billion of capital-markets fees in the first half, second globally, after selling more than $40 billion of AI construction debt 8. Its quarterly revenue has set records as that borrowing built, reaching $21.3 billion last quarter 9. Goldman profits from the unwind on both sides: its prime desk earns on churn, and its basket sells the hedge. Morgan Stanley needs the boom to keep borrowing.
Watch the December Fed decision, and whether asset-backed borrowing costs rise past the modest increase Goldman's analysts forecast 7. If they do, origination slows, and the fee engine behind those record revenues slows with it.
Morgan Stanley's revenue keeps setting records as the AI debt cycle builds
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | 13.3 |
| Q4 '23 | 12.9 |
| Q1 '24 | 15.1 |
| Q2 '24 | 15 |
| Q3 '24 | 15.4 |
| Q4 '24 | 16.2 |
| Q1 '25 | 17.7 |
| Q2 '25 | 16.8 |
| Q3 '25 | 18.2 |
| Q4 '25 | 17.9 |
| Q1 '26 | 20.6 |
| Q2 '26 | 21.3 |
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.


