Goldman's record €25 target prices an Iberdrola plan that does not exist yet
Iberdrola closed the third phase of its Brazilian grid alliance with Singapore's GIC on 1 October 2026, handing the fund 49% of a BRL 25.5bn transmission platform. The same day, Goldman Sachs set a record €25 target on the stock, resting on a strategic plan Iberdrola has not published.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
GIC takes 49% of Iberdrola's Brazilian transmission platform
Iberdrola closed the third phase of its transmission alliance with GIC, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, on 1 October 2026 1. The platform, Neoenergia Transmissão, now runs 16 assets and 6,710 kilometres of line across Brazil, worth about BRL 25.5bn (€4.25bn) with roughly BRL 1.9bn (€320m) a year of regulated revenue, on the company's figures 1.
The seven assets added went in for BRL 2,418m under an agreement announced in April 2. Neoenergia lifted its stake from 50% to 51% and keeps control; GIC holds the remaining 49% 12.
Two banks price a plan Iberdrola has not published
The same day, Goldman Sachs moved the stock to Buy at €25, up from €21, above all 31 firms covering Iberdrola; the prior ceiling was AlphaValue's €23.70 34. Deutsche Bank had gone Buy on 29 September at €22, up from €18.50 5. Both notes rest on a strategic-plan update due in 2027: March in Deutsche Bank's diary, an April capital markets day in Goldman's 456.
Deutsche Bank assumes the plan stretches the 2025-28 targets to 2030 and lifts adjusted net profit growth from 8% to 10% a year, about €10bn by 2030, some 10% above Bloomberg consensus; Goldman's model reaches €10.2bn 45. Those are bank forecasts, not company guidance, and Deutsche Bank itself says they could prove too optimistic if the new plan is less ambitious 5.
Goldman's €25 tops all 31 targets on Iberdrola; the shares closed at €20.61
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | €25 |
| AlphaValue | €23.7 |
| Deutsche Bank | €22 |
| Consensus mean | €20.93 |
Holders pay 16 times 2028 earnings for it
At the 30 September close of €20.61, Iberdrola trades near 16 times Deutsche Bank's 2028 earnings estimate, against 13 for the sector 5. Goldman's €25 assumes about €100bn of capex across 2026-31, some 70% into regulated networks, with cash flow negative through 2031 and net debt near four times earnings 4.
Iberdrola's own numbers point the same way: nearly €30bn into networks through 2028, and a regulated asset base of €55bn heading past €90bn by 2031 1. The demand behind those targets, data centres and rising US power-purchase prices, comes from the banks' notes 5.
The build is funded by selling the yield
The pattern is three years old: buy control of wires and customers, sell minority yield in the finished assets. This is the third stake GIC has taken since 2023 12. Iberdrola bought in more of Avangrid and spent €11.2bn on networks in 2024, folded in Electricity North West for about €5bn in 2025 3, and on 22 September filed with Spain's competition watchdog to buy its first Spanish retailer, Contigo Energía: 100,000 customers, price undisclosed 78.
What has to go right
The bull case has receipts: record net profit of €6.3bn in 2025 1, and a 2026 guidance lift Deutsche Bank expects at the third-quarter results, due 20 October 15. The risk list belongs to the same banks: weaker power prices, regulatory changes in Spain and Britain, and lower returns allowed on regulated networks 4.
Two dates settle it: the 20 October results 1 and the 2027 plan day. GIC bought the regulated yield on signed terms; shareholders are buying the promise.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
